tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12368959173311925092024-03-13T23:03:40.287-04:00The Neutron EconomyThe economics, politics, and technology of the nuclear fuel cycleAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.comBlogger106125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-64835384736433256602014-11-28T20:35:00.000-05:002014-11-29T17:24:25.218-05:00Dissecting the flaws within the EPA's Clean Power Plan<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]-->With the public comment period on the EPA's Clean Power Plan closing on December 1 (<a href="http://www.ans.org/epa/">have you submitted your comments yet?</a>), I thought I'd share the public comment I submitted to the EPA on some of the <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2014/11/18/the-details-of-the-clean-power-plan-so-you-want-to-see-the-numbers">shortcomings in the plan</a> as they pertain to nuclear energy, particularly as it relates to potentially<a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2014/08/20/unintend-consequences-lurking-in-epa-clean-power-plan/"> perverse unintended consequences</a> introduced into the plan (as discovered by my students Remy DeVoe and Justin Knowles).<br />
<br />
My comment follows below the break (<b>warning: </b>words ahoy).<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Dear Administrator
McCarthy,</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">As an assistant
professor of nuclear engineering at the University of Tennessee and a member of
the American Nuclear Society, I appreciate this opportunity to provide feedback
on the EPA’s rulemaking process. As a nuclear engineering professional, I
sincerely believe that nuclear energy can and must play a role helping to
produce a sustainable, economical, and reliable domestic energy supply while
balancing environmental considerations. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">While I believe that
the risks of climate change warrant federal action to limit carbon dioxide
releases and that the electric power sector is one of the most efficient places
to enact such regulations, I am concerned that several facets of the EPA’s
proposed rulemaking, while well-intentioned, may be counterproductive toward
the ultimate goals of carbon dioxide emission abatement. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">My chief concerns fall
into the following categories regarding nuclear energy in the proposed Baseline
System of Emissions Reductions (BSER) formula:</span></div>
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<li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
EPA’s discounting of existing nuclear generating capacity is both inappropriate
and limits incentives to preserve and extend the life of existing low-carbon
baseload electricity production</span></li>
<li><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The EPA’s
inclusion of five proposed, under-construction nuclear units in the state-level
emissions fails to credit states and electric utilities for forward-looking
actions in anticipation of carbon regulation, in effect acting as a penalty for
early action</span></li>
<li><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The EPA
needs to produce clear rules covering nuclear generating unit capacity up-rates
for the BSER state-level formulas</span></li>
<li><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The EPA
BSER formula for state nuclear capacity should reflect a more current baseline
to reflect the recent closure and announced closures of several nuclear
generating units</span></li>
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<b>Issue 1:</b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">
Inclusion of only 5.8% of state-level nuclear generating capacity is
inappropriate</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Proposed remedy:</b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> The EPA should consider 100% of state nuclear generating capacity in
calculating state-level BSER goals</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Explanation: </b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">In the <span id="goog_1298534926"></span><a href="http://www.federalregister.gov/a/2014-13726/p-665">basis for the proposed rulemaking</a> (</span>“Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing
Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units” – hereafter referred to
the Guidelines), the EPA indicates, “Another way to increase the amount of
available nuclear capacity is to preserve existing nuclear EGUs that might
otherwise be retired.”<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1236895917331192509#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></span></span></span></a>
In this same section, the EPA notes that an Energy Information Agency (EIA)
report indicating 5.7 GW of domestic nuclear generating capacity being,
“at-risk.” As this capacity is approximately 5.8% of the U.S. nuclear fleet
capacity, the EPA assigns a credit of 5.8% of existing nuclear generating
capacity to meeting state-level BSER goals, under the logic that this credit
would encourage the preservation of these units (and therefore defer their
replacement with more carbon-intensive sources).</div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">However, there are
several flaws with this line of reasoning. Given that the retirement of nuclear
units is both a discrete event (occurring within a single state’s borders and
thus counting only toward that state’s carbon dioxide abatement goal) and given
that nuclear units tend to be of relatively large capacities (i.e., generally
from 600-1100 MWe in scale), the loss of even one nuclear generating unit
constitutes a significant handicap towards carbon abatement, given that the
replacement power has almost entirely been made up from natural gas-fired
turbines, which emit non-trivial amounts of CO<sub>2</sub> in their operations.
Yet the current rule as proposed accounts for neither of these factors. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Distributing the
risk of 5.7 GWe of “at-risk” nuclear capacity across 30 states makes little
sense, given that at-risk capacity is concentrated within a few states. Rather,
the formula should explicitly account for losses of nuclear generating capacity
due to both planned and unplanned retirements (i.e., premature closures due to
economic and other forces). For the rule to be effective, states that allow (or
even encourage) the closure of nuclear units should be compelled to provide for
an <b>equivalent</b> zero-carbon electric capacity <b>or</b> subsequent offsets
through other reductions in the BSER formula (e.g., demand-side reductions,
etc.) </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">As currently
proposed however, states that retire nuclear units only need to make up 5.8% of
the lost capacity, a facet that introduces unanticipated, perverse consequences
under the proposed BSER formula. An example of such perverse effects was
uncovered by my graduate students, Remy Devoe and Justin Knowles, who <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2014/08/20/unintend-consequences-lurking-in-epa-clean-power-plan/">undertook a comprehensive evaluation</a> of the effect of premature nuclear plants closures
under the Clean Power Plan as-proposed. Their findings – which are based on the
provided EPA BSER spreadsheets – indicated that for 15 states, the closure of
all nuclear generating units and the subsequent replacement with an equivalent
capacity of natural gas-fired units (again, the most likely alternative) would
result in a net <b>decrease</b> in calculated emissions under the EPA BSER
formula, despite the clear fact that physical CO<sub>2</sub> emissions
precipitously increase<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1236895917331192509#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></span></span></span></a>.
Similarly, <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2014/11/18/the-details-of-the-clean-power-plan-so-you-want-to-see-the-numbers">parallel examinations by others</a> have come to the same conclusion<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1236895917331192509#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></span></span></span></a>.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">It is almost certain
that the EPA does not intend to reward states for increasing CO<sub>2</sub>
emissions from the electric power sector; therefore an incentive structure
which facilitates just that violates the stated goals of the plan. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The simplest and
most appropriate means of remedying the proposed rule would be for the EPA to
consider <b>all</b> electricity generation sources in the BSER formula
denominator – i.e., fossil, nuclear, hydro, and renewables. In this sense then,
the BSER formula would then roughly correspond to physical carbon intensity
from electricity generation. In this sense then the emissions formula in fact
becomes far more straightforward; states simply need to tally carbon emissions
(i.e., taking a standard CO<sub>2</sub> per MWh for fossil sources, multiplied
by the MWh produced) in the numerator and then the total state electricity
generation in the denominator. Offsets for demand-side reduction can then
similarly be taken at the fleet-average carbon intensity; i.e., such reductions
should be credited on a per-MWh basis weighted by the <b>average</b> CO<sub>2</sub>/MWh
intensity of the entire electric generating fleet within a state.</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The proposed remedy
thus encourages states to maintain nuclear generating units as well as other
low-carbon electricity sources while also being far simpler and avoiding
potentially perverse outcomes. Further, this remedy incentivizes states to consider
future, planned retirements of nuclear units as they reach the end of their
current round of license extensions to 60 years (beginning around 2020),
wherein it is anticipated only a fraction of the current nuclear generating
fleet will be awarded additional license extensions to operate for 80 years.
Given that these retirements are an entirely foreseeable event, it is entirely
prudent that EPA rulemaking also consider these effects within their
rulemaking. A rule which considers CO<sub>2</sub> abatement on a strictly
physical basis (i.e., looking solely at CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from the
electric power sector over total electric power generation) would easily
accommodate this.</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Certain stakeholders
may object to the rather severe penalty raised by fully crediting the loss of
nuclear units <b>against</b> a state’s carbon abatement goals (unless replaced
or otherwise offset by zero-carbon sources and other BSER build blocks, like
efficiency improvements and demand-side reductions). However, again – the basis
of rulemaking should be on the <b>physical</b> abatement of CO<sub>2</sub></span>
emissions from the electric power sector, not an “accounting” abatement. The
Clean Power Plan should therefore hold states and utilities accountable to
maintaining gains in CO<sub>2</sub> abatement and avoid “loopholes” that emerge
by discounting nuclear power generation and other zero-carbon sources (such as
hydropower). </div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Finally, in public
comments on the rule as proposed, certain stakeholders have expressed
opposition to the inclusion of nuclear at all within the EPA BSER formula, giving
varied (and dubious) objections to the use of nuclear energy writ large.
However, I would argue here that such objections to nuclear energy are well
beyond the scope of this issue, which is focused on carbon dioxide emissions
abatement. As nuclear energy constitutes a majority of the zero-carbon electric
capacity in the United States, the logic for its inclusion in the BSER formula
should be obvious: <b>any rule concerning carbon dioxide intensity regulations
must appropriately and fully credit the contributions of nuclear electricity
generation to this goal.</b></span></div>
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the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, the plan should in principle remain
neutral to the technological means used to achieve this end, giving states and
stakeholders the flexibility to achieve emissions reductions in the manner that
best suits their unique interests. To emphasize; the objective of the proposed
rule should be in the reduction of carbon dioxide pollution from the electric
power sector and not in setting a de facto national energy policy. In this
sense, the appropriate role of the EPA is to set clear, measurable standards –
such as carbon intensity targets for the electric power sector – and then
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<b>Issue 2:</b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> Inclusion
of the five proposed, under-construction nuclear units in setting state-level
BSER goals undermines early action on CO<sub>2</sub> abatement goals</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Proposed remedy:</b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> The EPA should only include new nuclear generating capacity in
state-level calculations on a “first electrons to the grid” basis</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Explanation:</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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In the Clean Power Plan rule Guidelines, <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/06/18/2014-13726/carbon-pollution-emission-guidelines-for-existing-stationary-sources-electric-utility-generating#p-665">the EPA indicates the following logic</a> behind including these units under construction as counting
toward the computation of the state goals as follows<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1236895917331192509#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></span></span></span></a>:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The EPA believes that since the decisions to construct these units were made prior to this proposal, it is reasonable to view the incremental cost associated with the CO<sub>2</sub> emission reductions available from completion of these units as zero for purposes of setting states' CO<sub>2</sub> reduction goals (although the EPA acknowledges that the planning for those units likely included consideration of the possibility of future regulation of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from EGUs). Completion of these units therefore represents an opportunity to reduce CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions from affected fossil fuel-fired EGUs at a very reasonable cost. For this reason, we are proposing that the emission reductions achievable at affected sources based on the generation provided at the identified nuclear units currently under construction should be factored into the state goals for the respective states where these new units are located.</blockquote>
<br />
However, the reasoning of this is precisely backwards. Such states have made a choice to build nuclear generating units (in contrast to other available alternatives, most especially natural gas combustion turbines) explicitly upon the anticipation of future carbon dioxide regulations. The rule in effect penalizes these states for taking early action to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions from their respective electricity sectors.<br />
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Further, the basis for the decision that the marginal cost is in effect zero and therefore that these should be counted directly toward computation of state-level goals is similarly baffling. It is indeed true that the marginal cost of completing the units, after making the decision to build and raising the appropriate capital, is indeed small – and thus the completion of these units as a carbon abatement strategy makes </span>economic sense. However, it does not follow at all that
these states should be given no credit for these units toward meeting their
carbon dioxide abatement goals.</div>
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</div>
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For one, any examination of the marginal costs of carbon
abatement strategies should be applied solely to whether the rule represents a
reasonable burden upon states and utilities; in this case, because the marginal
cost is low, the rule indeed can be met with minimal additional economic
consequences. However, no electricity has been produced from these plants, and
it is further reasonable to assume that the construction of these plants has
offset construction of more carbon-intensity generation alternatives (e.g.,
coal and natural gas). </div>
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<br /></div>
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Second, the decision to include these plants within
state-level goal calculations effectively penalizes these states as being
“early movers” and sets a negative precedent for future, forward-thinking
action by states and utilities to voluntarily move forward with large,
carbon-free electric projects. Numerous interviews with Southern Company
executives for example have indicated that the Vogtle units have been partially
motivated as a hedge against future carbon dioxide emissions constraints; this
kind of forward thinking should be rewarded. Instead, the current rule takes
these plants as a given and assigns them no contributions to future carbon
abatements under the rule. If the rule stands as-written, it is likely future
utilities will defer similar projects not explicitly compelled by regulatory
compliance such that their construction is appropriately credited to compliance
goals.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Finally, contrary to the assumptions of the EPA rule-making,
the completion of these units is not a given; one need look no further than
Watts Bar Unit 2, currently being finished by TVA. Construction on Watts Bar
Unit 2 was suspended in 1988 due to declines in electricity demand and did not
resume until 2007, with an expected completion in 2015. The EPA should not
penalize states and utilities that have expressed future ambitions on carbon
reduction strategies through nuclear deployments; rather, given the extended
timelines for nuclear unit construction, these units should instead be counted
toward meeting state-level goals, rather than in computing more stringent goals
by assuming their completion.</div>
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<br /></div>
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A fair, appropriate standard that would be simple to
implement would be one based on a “first-electrons-to-the-grid” standard, which
can be applied to all electric generation units. Per this standard, a unit
would not be counted toward state-level compliance until commercial electricity
production begins, being credited on a pro-rated basis; for example, a unit
which begins operations starting July 1 and continuously supplying power would
be credited at half the rated capacity (i.e., assuming it supplies at full
rated capacity continuously from July 1-Dec 31). This standard would
appropriately incentivize the development of new low-carbon sources while being
broadly applicable across a number of generating sources. (A similar rule could
likewise be applied to decommissioning of units, such as from the retirement of
coal-fired units.)</div>
<br />
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Critics of this proposal would contend that this allows
states to satisfy their mandated carbon abatement goals “too easily” – in
effect doing so through the construction of a single nuclear project. However,
this should be considered a feature, not a bug; in other words, if the EPA goal
is to encourage carbon abatement as early as possible with a minimum of
disruptive economic impact, then new nuclear units should be considered a
perfectly appropriate way of meeting this goal and regulate accordingly.
Further, again; the goal of a properly-structured carbon dioxide emissions
constraint should be to set a clear, measurable standard and then allow states
and utilities the maximum degree of freedom possible in meeting this target.
Thus, whether or not a state meets this goal though planned nuclear
construction is entirely irrelevant; the goal should be for the state to meet the
abatement standard, not in satisfying a particular vision of energy policy
embraced by particular stakeholders or the EPA.</div>
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<b>Issue 3:</b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> The
EPA needs to produce clear rules on nuclear generating unit capacity up-rates</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Proposed remedy:</b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> The EPA should clearly indicate that nuclear generating unit capacity
up-rates will be credited toward building block 3 in the BSER state goals.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Explanation:</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Nuclear generating
unit capacity up-rates (i.e., increases in operating power from the original
licensed operating power) have <a href="http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/licensing/power-uprates/status-power-apps/approved-applications.html">cumulatively accounted for over 7,000 MW of new electric generating capacity</a> since 1977, the equivalent of building seven new
nuclear generating units<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1236895917331192509#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></span></span></span></a>. Given
the substantial electric generating capacity provided by power uprates at
existing nuclear plants, it is logical to expect that these capacity uprates
will continue for newer plants with the continued development of more
sophisticated core designs that allow for less design conservatism. These types
of power uprates represent “low-hanging fruit” to states and utilities, as they
are typically far more cost-effective to implement than building new plants,
especially as nuclear generation has one of the lowest marginal costs of
electricity production among all sources. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Given the historic
trend, under a carbon dioxide emissions regime it is likely that continued
power uprates will be considered as a means of meeting state-level CO<sub>2</sub>
abatement goals. The EPA should therefore move to specifically clarify the role
of nuclear capacity uprates within the rule, crediting these at 100% of the
rated electrical capacity (equivalent to new unit construction) within Block 3
of the BSER.</span></div>
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<b>Issue 4:</b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> The
EPA BSER formula should reflect a more recent baseline for state nuclear
generating capacity</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Proposed remedy:</b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> The EPA state-level goals should reflect recent closures in nuclear
generating capacity through a more recent baseline (such as 2014 or 2015)</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Explanation:</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Several recent
nuclear plant closures (and one announced closure) warrant an updated baseline
for EPA evaluations, especially given the relative size of nuclear generating
units. These closures include:</span></div>
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Station (SONGS), Units 2 & 3</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">6/2/2013</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power
Plant</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">12/2014</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">620</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Cumulatively, the
closure of these units reflect a loss of 4,290 MWe of nuclear generating capacity
which will almost certainly be made up through the construction of natural
gas-fired capacity, resulting in a net increase in CO<sub>2</sub>. For some
states (such as Vermont, which is exempted from state-level goal calculations
as it had no carbon dioxide-emitting plants as of the proposed baseline year),
these closures will represent a fundamental shift in the state electricity
portfolios and therefore should be reflected in future estimates, especially if
additional nuclear units are closed and replaced with carbon-emitting sources
such as natural gas turbines.</span></div>
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<b>Conclusion</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">While I believe that
regulatory strategies to mandate carbon dioxide emissions are both justified
and necessary by the potential risks of climate change, the EPA Clean Power
Plan rule as-proposed contains several flaws in its treatment of nuclear power
which arguably work to undermine its goals. A consistent, technology-neutral
approach to carbon dioxide emission regulations – such as a mass-based formula
for CO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions intensity (i.e., calculating total mass of
CO<sub>2</sub> emitted by the electric power sector in each state over the
total electric power produced from all sources) would eliminate much of the
perverse incentives currently present and produce a fairer, more workable rule.
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<br />
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Thank you for your
consideration of my comments.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Sincerely,</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Steven E. Skutnik,
Ph.D.</span><a href="mailto:sskutnik@utk.edu"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"></span></a></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-44840475263250379692013-04-01T21:26:00.002-04:002013-04-01T21:26:32.968-04:00Cold shutdown<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-53I7kc2k69U/UVochf5QssI/AAAAAAAAHLw/go4NGClgzCc/s1600/burnedBulb.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="burned out bulb" border="0" height="240" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-53I7kc2k69U/UVochf5QssI/AAAAAAAAHLw/go4NGClgzCc/s320/burnedBulb.jpg" title="Lights out - for now, at least. || Image: CraftyGoat (Flickr)" width="320" /></a></div>
This is a post I've been delaying but one which needs to be made: as of now, this blog will be going into "cold shutdown" for awhile.<br /><br />Certain career constraints have (for now, at least) forced me to put this blog on an extended hiatus. I don't intend to disappear from blogging forever, but for the time being, I'm going to have to let this site go dark for awhile.<br />
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I hope those who have stuck with this blog have found it informative (and perhaps even entertaining). In the meanwhile, I look at this less like a decommissioning than I do a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAFSTOR">SAFSTOR</a>. As circumstances change, I hope to bring things back online again.<br />
<br />Thanks for reading.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-77055606941960143112013-02-28T07:47:00.001-05:002013-02-28T10:17:07.067-05:00The inherent shallowness of "market-based" arguments against nuclearIn the middle of a <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2013/02/virtual-silence-at-golden-fleece-award-news-conference.html">lengthy takedown</a> of Taxpayers for Common Sense's recent <s>publicity stunt</s> press release <a href="http://www.taxpayer.net/library/article/golden-fleece-award-goes-to-department-of-energy-for-federal-spending-on-sm">proclaiming their "Golden Fleece" award</a> over the DOE's recent award of $452 million for NRC licensing assistance to B&W to construct a first-of-a-kind SMR at the Clinch River site, <a class="g-profile" href="http://plus.google.com/115000450346159021065" target="_blank">+Rod Adams</a> brings up an extremely insightful point almost universally neglected in "market-based" critiques of described subsidies for nuclear energy. Specifically, Rod points out a perverse, unintended regulatory consequence brought on by anti-trust laws addressed by the Price-Anderson Act, which governs financial liability in the event of a nuclear accident. (The whole thing is of course well-worth reading.)<br />
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Rod <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2013/02/virtual-silence-at-golden-fleece-award-news-conference.html">points out</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The shared liability approach [inherent to Price-Anderson], if taken without permission, would violate the anti-trust laws that prevent competitors from cooperating. Price-Anderson’s system rewards the industry for sharing detailed technical information that would normally be carefully protected trade secrets. The nuclear industry’s habit of widely sharing important information and lessons learned from experience is one of the foundations on which its excellent safety record is built.</blockquote>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m9pg8W0gfHs/US9KhcvzUAI/AAAAAAAAHEk/1D3VUUBcOuo/s1600/fund-fs-fig1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Price-Anderson liability structure" border="0" height="200" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m9pg8W0gfHs/US9KhcvzUAI/AAAAAAAAHEk/1D3VUUBcOuo/s200/fund-fs-fig1.gif" title="The $12 billion counter to the so-called "subsidy"" width="147" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Image:</b> <a href="http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/funds-fs.html">NRC </a></td></tr>
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To those unfamiliar with how the Price-Anderson liability law works, <a href="http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/funds-fs.html">the NRC has a helpful fact sheet</a> which explains the basics. Contrary to common portrayal, Price-Anderson does not simply act as an "escape hatch" for financial liability for nuclear reactor operators. Each reactor operator is required to hold private insurance for $375 million per individual unit; after this limit is exceeded, a second tier of insurance from cross-pooling across each operating reactor kicks in - up to $11.6 billion. In other words, the liability structure of Price-Anderson <i>explicitly</i> makes it such that "an accident anywhere is an accident everywhere" - there is a shared financial liability across every operator.</div>
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The dispute arises of course as to what happens above the $11.975 billion liability threshold - yet this has never actually been tested. (In fact, after Three Mile Island, the worst nuclear accident in U.S. history, $175 million in funds came solely from the "first tier" - i.e., private insurance). Critics are of course free to make their case that the cap is too low - but it first involves an honest reckoning of what the actual liability structure <i>actually</i> is.<br />
<br />
More important however, arguments like this tend to underscore a <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/06/deconstructing-anti-nuclear-economic.html">common problem</a> with many of some of these <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2010/04/follow-up-on-conversation-with-catos-jerry-taylor-reactions-from-a-heritage-foundation-fellow.html">so-called "market" critiques</a> of nuclear energy - even cursory inspection tends to reveal how thin a paint job has been applied to what is primarily a vehicle for advancing a dogmatic anti-nuclear agenda. (I say this too as someone who is almost always first disposed toward market-based solutions.)<br />
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Such a harsh critique comes primarily from the shallowness of the arguments presented - which, like TCS's "Golden Fleece," focus primarily on the seen (i.e., the DOE's licensing assistance) and less so on the unseen (i.e., the flawed NRC licensing process which makes it incredibly difficult for new market entrants to feasibly seek design certification). In other words, the "market-based" aspect is simply invoked as a shallow pretext for one-sided arguments applied solely to nuclear energy, rather than across the entirety of the energy sector.<br />
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Thus why I highlight Rod's point: A fair free-market critique of the energy industry - nuclear included - would also look at the <i>barriers</i> erected by government regulation (which in turn are what spur the calls for so-called "subsidies" which free-market groups generally oppose). The perverse consequences of anti-trust regulation from information-sharing are an insightful example of this; likewise there is the issue of the regulatory standard for long-term disposal of nuclear waste. For example, a geologic repository for permanent disposal of nuclear waste is required to meet a standard of no more than 10 mrem/year exposure to the public over 10,000 years, followed by 100 mrem/year up to 1 million years. (How one evaluates these begins to leave the realm of engineering and move more into the realm of divination...) To give some perspective - this involves a protection standard equivalent to less than 5% of the <a href="http://www.new.ans.org/pi/resources/dosechart/">average background dose</a> one receives from natural sources over the initial post-closure period, and less than 30% in the million-year period. To put it in more familiar terms, this corresponds <i>maximum</i> exposure equivalent to 1 chest x-ray per year in the first 10,000 years, followed by <i>half</i> the dose from a head CT scan (and 1/10th the dose of a whole-body CT scan) over the next 990,000 years. (Discharges from nuclear plants are regulated <a href="http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/tritium-radiation-fs.html">still more strictly</a>, at 0.3 mrem per year maximum - less than a standard dental x-ray.) <br />
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Ask yourself this - when is the last time you've heard of a coal or natural gas facility being required to sequester their toxic wastes from the public in near-perpetuity? (Likewise even with <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2010/03/are-your-solar-panels-toxic">toxic heavy metal wastes</a> incident to the <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/solar-industry-grapples-hazardous-wastes-184714679.html">production of solar panels</a>). How many other facilities are required to pay hourly costs for regulators evaluating license applications (much less put in the encyclopedic licensing applications to begin with)?<br />
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The point here is not simply to complain or to justify any special treatment on the part of the nuclear industry - but it does provoke a question of why more so-called "market advocates" in energy only look at one side of the coin. A deeper (and more insightful) analysis would consider the inherent <i>barriers </i>erected as well - including the perverse consequences of features like anti-trust regulations and unequal applications of standards for risk exposure across different energy-producing industries - rather than cherry-picking analysis we're typically treated to presently - thin gruel, indeed.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-91694588053134062912013-02-27T09:00:00.000-05:002013-02-27T15:46:52.686-05:00Serious climate advocates don't turn upon their vanguardThe easiest test of whether one is dealing with a serious environmentalist is quite simple: anyone claiming to be a friend to the environment who simultaneously makes it their priority to shut down the most abundant carbon-free energy source in present day is at best no serious friend to the environment, showing a ludicrous disregard for the most basic concept of triage.<br />
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In this case, the calculus of triage is quite simple, and quite brutal - taking Fukushima as an example of some of the very worst consequences of a potential nuclear accident in terms of modern nuclear reactors (insomuch as a 40-year old reactor design can be called "modern"), such consequences amount to a catastrophic loss of property and perhaps even livelihoods to a localized region - but it pales in comparison to the global and devastating consequences of unchecked climate change, and pales even in comparison to the premature deaths brought about from ordinary pollution from more polluting sources like coal.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-r-7xy0WWkCM/US1twH_1CjI/AAAAAAAAHD8/bjQONeFi9eA/s1600/wimpy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Wimpy energy strategies" border="0" height="184" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-r-7xy0WWkCM/US1twH_1CjI/AAAAAAAAHD8/bjQONeFi9eA/s320/wimpy.jpg" title=""I would gladly trade you two joules of carbon-free energy tomorrow for one today..."" width="320" /></a>Few environmentalists are willing to take such a self-marginalizing position (although clearly that number is far from zero, if the ongoing campaigns against <a href="http://yesvy.blogspot.com/">Vermont Yankee</a> and Indian Point are any indication). Those that do inevitably fall into two categories - those that (disingenuously) assert that the gap can be filled nearly immediately with renewable sources (despite the mathematical difficulties of such a claim), falling back onto the idea of natural gas as a "bridge fuel" (again failing the basic arithmetic rule that <a href="http://www.blogger.com/"><i><span id="goog_2115848311"></span>half </i>the carbon dioxide emission of <b>coal<span id="goog_2115848312"></span></b></a>, easily the dirtiest source available, is still far greater than <i>zero, </i>or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources">close enough when all emissions are factored in over the entire lifecycle</a>), or when pressed, falling back upon the idea of "energy austerity" - asserting (again, <a href="http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/reinventing-fire-and-the-dream-of-efficiency/">under highly questionable premises</a>) that the energy deficit can simply be closed by using <i>less</i> - either <a href="http://worrydream.com/#!/TenBrighterIdeas">by efficiency</a> or simply by imposed austerity.<br />
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A natural experiment for this position is to look to Germany's <i>Energiewende</i>, which purports to do just that - trading carbon-free baseload from nuclear today for a promise of carbon-free intermittent electricity from renewables tomorrow. As to its efficacy, the evidence speaks for itself - <a href="http://phys.org/news/2013-02-german-greenhouse-gas-emissions-rose.html">Germany's carbon emissions <i>increased</i> last year by 1.2%</a> - namely because the chief replacement for nuclear energy has come not from renewables but perversely from burning more brown coal and natural gas. Claiming that substituting definite and indisputable risks (if only from the environmental costs of coal burning alone) for an uncertain, <i>possible</i> (and by all accounts, <i>remote</i>) risk represents a positive environmental trade-off is laughably absurd. Worse, it represents the very <i>opposite</i> of intelligent triage - again, taking for granted the idea that the risk of a nuclear catastrophe is non-negligible (debatable, but assumed for the sake of argument), basic logic dictates eliminating the worst and most certain environmental harms <i>first</i> - the very opposite of what is being done.<br />
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Inevitably then we come to the default position it seems of most "mainstream" environmentalists today, perhaps realizing the absurd parody of triage implied by prioritizing the closure of existing, operational plants which emit no carbon in their operations over <a href="http://www.desmogblog.com/coal-power-industry-united-states-facts">the most significant environmental offenders</a>, instead re-focus their message on opposing the development of <i>new </i>nuclear units (essentially hoping to simply run out the clock on the matter). The most curious arguments invoked inevitably come down to very selective applications of both arithmetic and economics - those being that nuclear takes too long to build compared to renewables (which causes one to question whether they've done the math at the time it would take to <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/01/interminable-innumeracy-renewables.html">build out an equivalent capacity</a>) or that it simply costs too much while in the same breath insisting that the federal government must provide financial support to their energy sources of choice. (As for the latter, there is yet another quick test of the seriousness of the convenient economic principle invoked - ask the proponent whether their argument applies equally when it is their own ox being gored. If the answer is "no," the argument about economics can be clearly dismissed as specious special pleading.)<br />
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Give the boosters of natural gas as an eponymous "bridge fuel" credit for one thing - at least their position doesn't rely upon logical gymnastics (although it does depend on <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2013/01/wheres-real-bottleneck-for-natural-gas.html">where you call home in the wintertime</a>).<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wZJtfT4MsDw/US2J_g_N9MI/AAAAAAAAHEQ/8Ar5Wqfh1J4/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="US electricity graph" border="0" height="144" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wZJtfT4MsDw/US2J_g_N9MI/AAAAAAAAHEQ/8Ar5Wqfh1J4/s320/chart.png" title="Nuclear: still the foundation of carbon-free U.S. electricity" width="320" /></a></div>
The argument is simply puzzling, to say the least. As of right now, nuclear energy forms the vanguard in the fight against climate change, making up about <a href="http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?sec=g&geo=g&fuel=vvg&agg=2,0,1http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?sec=g&geo=g&fuel=vvg&agg=2,0,1">60% of the U.S. carbon-free electricity portfolio</a>. In what constitutes an existential fight for the simultaneous survival of the human race combined with an unparalleled drive to lift out billions from crushing poverty, what sane leader then treats the vanguard as disposable? Contrary to popular belief, we do not currently suffer from an embarrassment of riches when it comes to options for stabilizing carbon output, especially if economic considerations are factored in (as they should be).<br />
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The fact is, prioritizing carbon-<i>emitting</i> sources like natural gas over nuclear - be it for the present (if temporary) economic realities (again, <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2013/01/wheres-real-bottleneck-for-natural-gas.html">where warm weather and plenty of pipeline capacity persists</a>) or <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/02/rent-seeking-and-greenwashing-case-of.html">for more ideological reasons</a> (i.e., avoiding nuclear energy at all costs) - poses a <a href="http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/02/05/is-nuclear-power-doomed-to-dwindle/">real and significant handicap</a> in our ability to combat climate change.<br />
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Sane triage allows for the idea of swapping out the worst sources (like coal) for "better" sources (like natural gas) - but what serious advocate for action on climate change should advocate turning upon their own vanguard - especially when arguably the nuclear solution has the <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/projects/second-national-risk-culture-study.html">potential to cut across ideological boundaries</a>, particularly to those who might otherwise be otherwise ill-disposed to work as allies (i.e., ideological conservatives)? One needn't even believe in the reality of climate change for solutions which mitigate carbon to have real consequences - something which itself ultimately demonstrates nuclear's cross-cutting value proposition as a key tool in climate change mitigation.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-9145459519886685832013-02-11T09:30:00.000-05:002013-02-11T10:08:29.035-05:00Chemophobia and radiophobia's shared cultural roots<a href="http://cultureofchemistry.fieldofscience.com/">Chemist Michelle Francl</a> has a <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/medical_examiner/2013/02/curing_chemophobia_don_t_buy_the_alternative_medicine_in_the_boy_with_a.single.html">quite interesting critique</a> of the all-too-common "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobos_in_Paradise">bobo</a>" conceit of <a href="http://cultureofchemistry.fieldofscience.com/2013/02/chemophobia-boy-with-thorn-in-his-joints.html">chemophobia </a>- in its distilled form, a variant of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_nature">"appeal to nature" fallacy</a> (sometimes mistakenly referred to as the "naturalistic fallacy"). Faced with the unfamiliar (and sometimes unpronounceable) chemical names for even mundane medicines like <i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naproxen">naproxen</a> </i>(more commonly known under its trade name "Aleve"), they sound menacing and unfamiliar - despite the fact that naproxen is fundamentally similar to <i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salicylic_acid">salicylic acid</a></i> on a chemical level - an extract of willow bark (and a metabolite of the more common compound known by the humble name of "aspirin"). As a result, a booming cottage industry exists for peddlers of "natural" remedies - with the implication that "natural" means "safer." (In the end, chemistry doesn't really care whether it comes from a lab or nature - the laws of physics remain the same regardless).<br />
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An important consequence of chemophobia is that it trades established science for an <i>unknown - </i>"traditional" alternative remedies which may or may not be effective and which fall outside the rigorous quality, safety, and perhaps most important <i>dose </i>controls applied to pharmaceuticals. But the one thing that it doesn't escape from is <i>chemistry itself</i> - for these "natural" remedies to be effective, they rely upon the same chemical principles in modern medicines. Hence, the chemophobia fallacy.<br />
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Francl's discussion of chemophobia (of which the whole thing is very much worth reading) touches upon an important parallel common to discussions of nuclear technology - <i>radiophobia</i>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
We are a chemophobic culture. Chemical has become a synonym for something artificial, adulterated, hazardous, or toxic. Chemicals are bad—for you, for your children, for the environment. But whatever chemophobics would like to think, there is no avoiding chemicals, no way to create chemical-free zones. Absolutely everything is made of atoms and molecules; it’s all chemistry.</blockquote>
The problems of chemophobia and radiophobia share <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/04/cultural-cognition-of-risk-and.html">common cultural cognition roots</a> - particularly a mistrust arising from the <i>origin</i> of perceived risks. Sources of risk from large, faceless corporations, from synthetic origins are unfamiliar or ill-understood conspire to <i>increase</i> perceived risk, particularly for more those who identify with more egalitarian / communitarian values. (By contrast, as Francl notes, more natural, friendly-sounding names - think <i>extract of willow</i> - by virtue of their familiarity sound less threatening - again, despite the fact that <i>the chemistry is unchanged</i>.)<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BIFQbsPB1zA/URhnfyD7VYI/AAAAAAAAHC0/HtwNFNWW-TI/s1600/usrnpot.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="US radon exposure map" border="0" height="246" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BIFQbsPB1zA/URhnfyD7VYI/AAAAAAAAHC0/HtwNFNWW-TI/s320/usrnpot.gif" title="U.S. radon exposure, via USGS" width="320" /></a></div>
The same is true for things like radon gas - despite frequent concerns about radiation exposure from nuclear power plants, individuals are far less likely to be concerned about far more common (and far larger) exposures from <a href="http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/radon/rnus.html">naturally-occurring radon gas</a> in their own basements resulting from the decay of uranium byproducts found in uranium-rich soils. More importantly, the largest source of increasing radiation exposure in modern times has been due to medical imaging - the increasing proliferation of regular CT scans is far higher contributor to the average American's radiation exposure compared to nuclear energy facilities. (ANS has a <a href="http://www.new.ans.org/pi/resources/dosechart/">very useful tool</a> for estimating your average exposure based on these kinds of lifestyle factors.)<br />
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The consequences of irrational fear go beyond the consequences for the pharmaceutical and energy industries - the choice to eschew science-based medicine carries real risks for health and safety. Fear of radiation <a href="http://theenergycollective.com/michaelgiberson/184211/europe-burning-more-american-coal">results in energy choices like coal</a> (particularly in Germany, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-19/merkel-s-green-shift-forces-germany-to-burn-more-coal-energy.html">which has swapped coal for the nuclear plants which it has sought to shut down</a>) which produce <a href="http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html">far more deaths per kilowatt-hour</a> both by fine particulates and which incidentally release <i>more</i> radiation than the nuclear plants they seek to avoid. The desire for "natural," intermittent energy sources (like wind and solar) in turn lead to far higher consumption of natural gas to fill the gaps in their intermittency, again amplifying the far greater risks of global warming. (And, as <a class="g-profile" href="http://plus.google.com/115000450346159021065" target="_blank">+Rod Adams</a> recently notes, overly conservative emergency evacuation protocols can in fact <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2013/02/increasing-evacuation-zones-actually-increases-risk-in-case-of-reactor-accident.html"><i>increase</i> latent cancers in the event of a nuclear emergency</a> - namely by contributing to increased traffic congestion, preventing the needed triage to evacuate those facing the greatest exposure).<br />
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Francl concludes with an astute observation of a common goal, which should not itself be to <i>dictate</i> choices concerning how risks of various alternatives (both in medicine and energy) are weighed, but to ensure that those risks are discussed and decided based upon <i>sound information</i> about those risks, rather than falling prey to cultural biases. Chemistry, like energy, is an indispensable component of the modern world, and both face the same communication challenge of fostering a science-based public discussion based on a rational evaluation of comparative risks and benefits. This in turn means understanding <i>how</i> cultural biases are formed - and ultimately <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/browse-papers/fixing-the-communications-failure.html">developing science communication strategies</a> to break through these biases. (In this regard, I once again point to folks like <a class="g-profile" href="http://plus.google.com/105965729088900716842" target="_blank">+Dan Kahan</a> of the <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/">Yale Cultural Cognition project</a>, who is doing the yeoman's work with this topic as well as <a href="http://www.dropeik.com/">David Ropeik</a>, who writes about risk perception issues extensively in an approachable fashion.)<br />
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I will say as a postscript that I think all too often that there is a particular intellectual laziness which resists these kinds of strategies - which (at least in the case of nuclear energy) solely blames public (mis-)perception of risks on petroleum-fueled conspiracies. Aside from being devoid of evidence whenever challenged, such excuses (and they are <b>excuses</b>) unproductively halt any discussion of what to <i>do</i> about the issue (and further, fail to recognize the deeper cognitive science behind how risk perceptions are formed. For example, <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/browse-papers/cultural-cognition-of-the-risks-and-benefits-of-nanotechnolo.html">cultural polarization occurs even for novel technologies like nanotechnology</a> after exposure to limited information about the technology.)<br />
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Obviously, there exists no doubt that there's money to be made preying on fear (both in the realm of alternative "energy" and "medicine"), but the fact is that these is more than sufficient evidence that how risk perceptions are formed has far more to do with our inherent <i>values</i> and cultural affiliations than the stock price of Exxon-Mobil. Thus, for these kinds of science-informed discussions to occur, it also requires nuclear professionals to stop hiding behind convenient, ephemeral excuses of conspiracies and actually begin understanding<i> </i>the <i>science </i>of how risks are perceived (and likewise, the <i>science </i>of risk communication).Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-77898937915343655372013-01-25T08:30:00.000-05:002013-01-26T10:55:13.228-05:00Where's the real bottleneck for natural gas? Distribution.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
As a scientist and an unabashed nerd, I love data. Particularly, I love it when ready access to data reveals things that are surprising in the face of conventional wisdom.</div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ddwhr5IpLBg/UQIJz9aEjxI/AAAAAAAAHBQ/gcwiRF1J7OE/s1600/natgas_prices_ISO-NE.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Graph of wholesale electricity and natural gas prices from ISO-NE" border="0" height="215" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ddwhr5IpLBg/UQIJz9aEjxI/AAAAAAAAHBQ/gcwiRF1J7OE/s320/natgas_prices_ISO-NE.png" title="Wholesale electricity prices vs. natural gas prices" width="320" /></a>An interesting case comes up with this year's colder winter in New England. (Thankfully, I'm located in damp, icy East Tennessee, where even the threat of ice and snow manages to bring civilization to a grinding halt.) In particular, <a href="http://yesvy.blogspot.com/2013/01/cold-weather-winners-and-losers-on.html">Meredith Angwin noted</a> an interesting <a href="http://www.iso-ne.com/nwsiss/pr/2013/2012_prices_final_01232013.pdf">press release by ISO-NE</a> (the grid operator for the northeastern United States), ostensibly pointing to record-low wholesale electricity prices, but containing something more interesting buried beneath - a slow but quite noticeable creep of wholesale natural gas prices upward to the range of $6/MMBtu (1 MMBtu = 1 million British Thermal Units).</div>
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At first glance, this seemed a bit surprising to me, given that while spot prices for natural gas have nudged a bit upward, they're still hovering well under the $4/MMBtu mark; in other words, they don't seem to be going anywhere fast. What really began to catch my eye however was the cyclic behavior of gas prices in the chart from ISO-NE, something which doesn't show up in spot prices from Henry Hub (which generally sets the market spot price for natural gas in the U.S.) </div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-S4Uqhe0JXoM/UQIAKdcrOpI/AAAAAAAAHA0/PLZObbVxjcM/s1600/gas_prices_us.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Natural gas spot, retail, and electricity prices" border="0" height="300" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-S4Uqhe0JXoM/UQIAKdcrOpI/AAAAAAAAHA0/PLZObbVxjcM/s400/gas_prices_us.png" title="Natural gas electricity follows wholesale prices follows spot prices. And the cheese stands alone." width="400" /></a>Looking to verify the trend, I dug a little further around EIA's website. While unfortunately their data on "citygate" prices are a few months behind, the regular periodicity in the citygate price was likewise not there - instead, taken as an average across the U.S., spot, wholesale, and electricity costs derived from natural gas tend to have a strong correlation. Yet here we see above in the data from ISO-NE that prices clearly are deviating substantially from spot prices - what gives?</div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-27iU8t8omV8/UQIMfVaDXqI/AAAAAAAAHBs/M-JvhwyxZV0/s1600/US_natgas_spot_region.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a></div>
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-27iU8t8omV8/UQIMfVaDXqI/AAAAAAAAHBs/M-JvhwyxZV0/s1600/US_natgas_spot_region.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="Natural gas prices spike in the NE corridor" border="0" height="189" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-27iU8t8omV8/UQIMfVaDXqI/AAAAAAAAHBs/M-JvhwyxZV0/s320/US_natgas_spot_region.png" title="The case against living in New England: natural gas prices edition" width="320" /></a>It turns out in fact that the culprit is in <i>distribution. </i>A look around EIA's website brought me to <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/special/pdf/2013_sp_01.pdf">this interesting report</a>, which notes that supply bottlenecks in U.S. northeast for natural gas are expected to produce significant variances in energy prices from the rest of the U.S., and in particular from Henry Hub prices.<br />
<br />
In essence, despite a relatively abundant supply of natural gas at the wellhead due to the proliferation of wells seeking to exploit unconventional resources, one thing the laws of physics <i>haven't</i> changed for is the capacity of distribution infrastructure - in other words, <i>pipeline capacity</i>. Natural gas doesn't really care where its end destination is - be it for electricity or home heating. Which means a cold winter can easily drive up demand and stress pipeline capacities - precisely what is occurring, according to the EIA report: utilization rates at the Algonquin compressor station have averaged around 86% for the months of November through December 2012.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GMHbjQRjZsE/UQIMiRVV90I/AAAAAAAAHB0/iepG2VzxzPs/s1600/algonquin_capacity_price.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="Capacity versus price comparison for Algonquin compressor" border="0" height="233" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GMHbjQRjZsE/UQIMiRVV90I/AAAAAAAAHB0/iepG2VzxzPs/s320/algonquin_capacity_price.png" title="Econ101: It still works!" width="320" /></a>Basic economics can predict what happens next. Because natural gas is generally shipped across pipelines as a compressed gas, due to frictional losses across the pipeline, it must be repressurized at terminals across the pipeline network. The higher demand for gas goes, the closer to maximum capacity these terminals reach. And, as EIA data helpfully shows, the closer utilization reaches to 100%, the larger prices begin to "spread" from spot prices at Henry Hub.<br />
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<br />
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In other words, while the <i>commodity </i>price of gas may indeed be cheap, the <i>wholesale</i> cost to utilities can be an entirely <i>regional</i> phenomenon. This is especially true in the blustery cold of New England winter, where demand is especially cyclic.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6tyxVrprFQY/UQIA0cmv3uI/AAAAAAAAHA8/v-Vxuynz7ow/s1600/NE_us_natgas_citygate.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Citygate prices in the Northeast versus U.S. average" border="0" height="233" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6tyxVrprFQY/UQIA0cmv3uI/AAAAAAAAHA8/v-Vxuynz7ow/s320/NE_us_natgas_citygate.png" title="Everything is more expensive up here" width="320" /></a></div>
I compiled together citygate prices for natural gas across the Northeast and compared them to U.S. average citygate prices, and the effect is quite clear - states in the Northeast pay on average an appreciable premium on wholesale prices over the U.S. average wholesale, precisely due to these types of bottlenecks, particularly during times of peak demand (i.e., cold winters). Obviously, pipeline capacity has been <a href="http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/data.cfm#pipelines">steadily increasing</a> in response to demand for gas, however the real issue will inevitably be cyclical "spikes" due to competing uses of gas as a heating source.<br />
<br />
Why go to all of this trouble to look at trends in gas consumption (especially when I'm not an energy economist by trade)? Namely because it upends some recent "conventional wisdom" about energy; namely, <i>gas prices are still a regional phenomenon.</i> While there are some places where supply is not as constrained by distribution capacity (or driven by cyclic consumption) and it thus <a href="https://twitter.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/294257232852430849/photo/1">makes perfect sense</a> to look at natural gas a short-term replacement electricity source (particularly for coal), the Northeast is a shining example where this is definitely <i>not</i> the case. Which in turn makes efforts to shut down stable and relatively low-cost (not to mention carbon-free) baseload sources like <a href="http://yesvy.blogspot.com/">Vermont Yankee</a> (and Indian Point) all the more insane - despite the claims of proponents to this end, the balance of electricity from these plants would <i>not </i>be made up from renewables but rather almost certainly come from natural gas. To which again, low <i>spot</i> prices for natural gas are in fact a remarkably poor indicator - especially if one considers what adding an additional consumption driver would look like in terms of utilization "bottlenecks" during times of peak demand (i.e., winter).<br />
<br />
I still remain unconvinced of the argument that wholesale natural gas prices are set to explode (and so <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/08/wishful-thinking-on-natural-gas-prices.html">stand by my bet with Rod Adams</a>) - namely because of the fact that an abundance of known, recoverable supplies makes economics of the raw commodity <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/09/does-declining-gas-exploration-indicate.html">relatively self-correcting</a>. (In other words, as gas prices go up, so too will the number of wells, pushing prices back down to an equilibrium). However, revolutions in the recovery of gas from novel geology <i>hasn't</i> changed the fundamental physics of pipelines - which in turn may be the <i>real</i> constraint to natural gas growth as an electricity source, at least on a regional scale.<br />
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<b>Update:</b> Via <a href="https://twitter.com/Atomicrod/status/295193977467052033">Twitter</a>, <a href="http://www.atomicinsights.com/">Rod Adams</a> points to an <a href="http://www.eia.gov/special/alert/east_coast/pdf/energy_market_alert_Jan_25_2013.pdf">EIA alert from yesterday</a> about natural gas prices and capacity in the Northeast, given the recent cold snap. Current local spot prices at Algonquin and Transco Z 6 NY (a New York-based distribution hub) are around ~$30/MMBtu - almost 10 times the Henry Hub spot price, with utilization factors reported to be at over 85% capacity. As Rod puts it, "Winter happens."Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-28719257565257749662013-01-16T12:00:00.000-05:002013-01-16T12:00:06.154-05:00DOE's spent fuel strategy: Not a bang but a whimperThere is a hallowed tradition in Washington known as the "Friday <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Document_dump">Document Dump</a>," in which news and announcements the government wishes to bury are strategically timed for Friday afternoons, when such announcements tend to fall through the cracks of the typical news cycle (i.e., assuming reporters are even present to cover the event, the strategic timing tends to ensure it will miss the weekend papers, thus effectively "burying" the story by the time the new week rolls around).<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ev2NnZT8G_8/UPYSzWbyI0I/AAAAAAAAHAg/QyCWFNtTTWw/s1600/DOE+SNF+wordle.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="DOE SNF strategy wordle" border="0" height="223" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ev2NnZT8G_8/UPYSzWbyI0I/AAAAAAAAHAg/QyCWFNtTTWw/s400/DOE+SNF+wordle.png" title="Not a whole lot of surprises here" width="400" /></a></div>
In this storied tradition, the Department of Energy released the Obama administration's <a href="http://energy.gov/downloads/strategy-management-and-disposal-used-nuclear-fuel-and-high-level-radioactive-waste">response to the Blue Ribbon Commission</a> report last Friday to relatively scarce media coverage. In fact, one would be hard-pressed to find any coverage in many of the major papers; what little coverage there was can be found in the <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/11/energy-department-proposes-first-new-nuclear-waste/">Washington Times</a>, <a href="http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/ElectricPower/6018506">Platts</a> (an energy publication), and the <a href="http://www.lvrj.com/news/doe-new-target-date-for-a-nuclear-repository-is-2048-186542641.html">Las Vegas Review-Journal</a>. (Needless to say, the timing appears to have had its intended effect).<br />
<br />
<a href="http://us.arevablog.com/2013/01/14/doe-adds-voice-to-choir-for-used-nuclear-fuel-management-reform/">AREVA's NextEnergy blog</a> and <a href="http://www.nucleardiner.com/archive/item/used-nuclear-fuel">Nuclear Diner</a> have already posted some of their thoughts on the release, but after reading the DOE's report I have to say I've felt a bit underwhelmed. As a friend remarked, it's a document "laying out the next set of milestones for the nation's spent fuel management program to miss." I wish I could say he was joking.<br />
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<b>Some of the major highlights:</b><br />
<ul>
<li>An emphasis upon a flexible, staged, consent-based process for locating a permanent geologic repository for used nuclear fuel designed to be adaptive to potentially changing circumstances.</li>
<li>A new, independent waste disposal organization charged with overseeing used fuel management and disposal, along with legislative action to reform allocation of the Nuclear Waste Fee paid by operators to allow for greater operational flexibility and independence.</li>
<li>Short-term emphasis upon siting a pilot interim storage facility for used nuclear fuel, with a triage priority of relocating fuel from decommissioned reactor sites first. Operations would begin in <u><b>2021</b></u>.</li>
<li>Transitioning toward an operational interim storage site with sufficient capacity to meet the existing federal government's liabilities under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982; operations to begin in <u><b>2025</b></u>.</li>
<li>Making "demonstrable progress" toward locating and characterizing a potential geologic repository with a target operations date of <u><b>2048</b></u>.</li>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-e_A4ji4nr44/UPXAjqJCmEI/AAAAAAAAHAM/kPiVMYCDkOo/s1600/ctrl-v-hi.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Copy Pasta" border="0" height="100" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-e_A4ji4nr44/UPXAjqJCmEI/AAAAAAAAHAM/kPiVMYCDkOo/s320/ctrl-v-hi.png" style="cursor: move;" title="The DOE's response to the BRC report" width="320" /></a></div>
Much of the above points are relatively familiar, essentially retreading what has already been detailed in the original BRC report findings (thus begging the question of why a 14-page response would take so very long). And, for the most part, the <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/09/dissecting-brc-report-part-i-where-they.html">BRC findings</a>, translated to the DOE report, are not <i>bad</i> findings - however it's hard to find where the DOE's report has added much at all to the discussion aside from a blanket endorsement.<br />
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Perhaps to the disappointment of the AREVA (who emphasized reprocessing as a viable fuel cycle strategy in their <a href="http://us.arevablog.com/2013/01/14/doe-adds-voice-to-choir-for-used-nuclear-fuel-management-reform/">blog response</a>), the report seems to go out of its way to minimize the potential role of reprocessing in a future U.S. fuel cycle strategy - in fact, one point which stuck out to me was in that the DOE report recommended that the scope of the waste management organization (referred to as a "management and disposal organization, or "MDO" - because if there's one thing Washington loves, it's acronyms...) should be explicitly constrained to explicitly exclude reprocessing. Here's the relevant quote:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In addition, the mission of the MDO will need to be carefully defined. For example, funding made available to the MDO should be used only for the management and disposal of radioactive waste. While this could include the management and disposal of waste resulting from the processing of defense materials, <b>the MDO itself should not be authorized to perform research on, fund or conduct activities to reprocess or recycle used nuclear fuel.</b> These limitations on the MDO mission are consistent with the recommendations of the BRC.</blockquote>
Thus, it would strongly indicate a commitment to a once-through fuel cycle for the time being. Among other factors cited to support this decision was <a href="http://www.osti.gov/bridge/purl.cover.jsp?purl=/1057939/">ORNL research</a> I'd highlighted in <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2013/01/to-reprocess-or-dispose-look-at-fuel.html">my previous post</a>, which indicated that most of the current used nuclear fuel inventory (98%, in fact) could be consigned to direct disposal even assuming a future closed nuclear fuel cycle.<br />
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With respect to the emphasis on interim storage, I have to admit to having a somewhat adverse reaction while reading the report - namely because of the jarring disparity between words and deeds. In particular, such a ready-made pilot facility for interm storage based upon local consent has already been proposed - <a href="http://www.privatefuelstorage.com/">Private Fuel Storage</a>. PFS existed as a consortium of nuclear utilities; it negotiated a contract with the Skull Valley Band of the Goshute Indian Tribe located in Utah (<a href="http://www.privatefuelstorage.com/project/map.html">located about 70 miles SSW</a> from Salt Lake City).<br />
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PFS had been attempting to open a privately owned and operated interim storage site for over ten years (it first filed a license application with the NRC in 1997); in the process, it has been a political football of multiple administrations in the ongoing battle over Yucca Mountain. Ultimately, PFS <a href="http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/news/2006/06-028.html">received an operating license from the NRC in 2006</a>, yet various shenanigans from both the state and federal level prevented it from ever opening. (The Bureau of Land Management refused to allow for the expansion of a rail line to ship fuel to the reservation, and the state of Utah continued to block any shipments of spent fuel canisters to the site along Utah highways. Despite the fact that as a Native American tribe the Skull Valley Band is legally autonomous from the state of Utah, the state government found plenty of other ways to frustrate the intentions of the Goshute Tribe and PFS.) <br />
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Roughly two weeks before the DOE report was released, <a href="http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/WR_Cancellation_leaves_few_options_for_US_waste_0401131.html">PFS finally announced its intention to withdraw its license from the NRC</a> - namely because it was clear that the process was going nowhere (and licenses aren't free). Thus, a jarring chasm between word and deed - clearly, a pilot interim storage site <i>already existed</i> - one which had the consent of the local government (in this case, the Goshute Tribe); however, the Obama administration has shown little inclination to intervene. One is left to wonder then how any other future site could hope to get off the ground when a ready-made solution such as this one is abandoned to state-level sabotage; one can easily see such a scenario playing itself out with states blocking shipments to interim sites located outside their borders based on the Utah example.<br />
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Particularly depressing about the overall strategy is in its relative lack of ambition; a planned operating date for an interim storage site which would happen a mere <i><b>27 years</b></i> after the original timeline obligated by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act (and <i><b>43 years</b> </i>after the act was first passed), with no repository in sight until I (a relatively young and spry individual at the present) am poised to retire - a full <b><i>50 years past the original deadline</i></b>. (Only in the federal government is one allowed to miss a deadline by a full half-century with a straight face.)<br />
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I will be the first to say that the 1987 amendments to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act which ultimately decreed Yucca Mountain as the nation's sole geologic repository by virtue of legislative fiat was a mess. But the warmed-over copy-'n'-paste job combined with completely lackluster goals for siting a repository look like rather unseemly indicators that Obama administration's approach to the BRC process was essentially that of a stalling tactic, following their contentious decision (both politically and legally) to cancel the Yucca Mountain project. If one is to unilaterally dismantle nearly three decades of standing policy of nuclear waste disposal policy, a little more should be expected in terms of an alternative. The DOE report would not be it.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-11285517568772090732013-01-15T15:03:00.000-05:002013-01-15T15:15:50.377-05:00To reprocess or dispose? A look at fuel cycle triageA recent study by former colleagues of mine from <a href="http://ornl.gov/">Oak Ridge National Laboratory</a> raises some interesting questions about the future direction of U.S. nuclear fuel cycle. My colleagues have been
presently engaged in a scientific triage study for used nuclear
fuel disposition options. One of the largest parts of their work has simply been in collecting the massive amount of data on the 67,600 metric tons (1 MT = 1000 kg) of commercial used nuclear fuel in the U.S., including issues such as how long it was burned in the reactor, the fuel type, and the initial enrichment, with an objective of being able to accurately characterize the composition and location of every used nuclear fuel assembly presently in the U.S. (I also am tangentially involved in this work, funding an undergraduate for data collection and am hoping to expand my role into doing modeling work in support of this effort).<br />
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The overall goal of this work is to support a more informed decision framework to specifically look at how we deal with spent fuel inventories in the U.S. - in other words, performing a triage analysis on what fuel would be the best candidates for various fuel cycle options (including direct disposal versus recycling). Given that some fuel is inherently going to be less suitable (read: more expensive) for recovering actinides as future fuel material, the goal is to sort out what can be disposed of immediately and what might be preserved for future fuel cycles.<br />
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Their (surprising) finding was that of the present
inventory, <a href="http://www.osti.gov/bridge/purl.cover.jsp?purl=/1057939/">98% of the current used fuel inventory (by mass) could be disposed of without leaving open the option of future retrieval </a>while
still allowing for the ability to facilitate a future closed fuel cycle
in the U.S. This conclusion was based upon the assumption that the U.S. would eventually open a fuel reprocessing facility; even under this assumption most of the present inventory of used nuclear fuel is not needed to support such a cycle. Some of this is simply due to the large inventory of used
nuclear fuel in the U.S. - at nearly 68,000 metric tons of heavy metal
with the largest fuel reprocessing centers having a throughput on the
order of 1,000-1,500 MTHM per year, there is simply more "legacy" fuel
out there than a typical facility would ever usefully process. <br />
<br />
Their
decision analysis was based on several factors, including the value of
material which would be recovered (older fuel tends to have less
plutonium available for recovery, and the plutonium is of lower
quality); complexity (older fuel has other complicating factors such as
different types of cladding material - like stainless steel - which can complicate potential recovery and
thus make it less preferable to newer fuel), and simply the amount of
material needed to sustain a closed fuel cycle (given the time before
such a facility would come online, it is anticipated more than
sufficient inventories would be present to sustain a closed fuel cycle
without drawing into older fuel). Likewise, they considered what fuel assemblies might be useful to future reprocessing research efforts by DOE (such as used, highly-enriched fuel from naval and research programs).<br />
<br />
To many who advocate exploiting the resource potential of used nuclear fuel (myself included), this is a jarring conclusion. There has always been a tacit assumption in mind that domestic reprocessing would not only include <i>future</i> inventories of used nuclear fuel, but help to alleviate the pressure on <i>current</i> demand for geologic repository space by making use of the readily available inventories out there. Yet beyond looking at what is economically practical (i.e., prioritizing the most valuable fuel for recovery), the report brings in an eye-opening reality - given the fact that the U.S. has spent the last thirty years committed to a once-through fuel cycle track, there is simply more used fuel than a single modern reprocessing facility would have capacity to handle, especially given the stable influx of fuel coming out of future reactors which would form the foundation for a future closed fuel cycle. As a result, much of this "legacy" fuel becomes unnecessary to support such future fuel cycles.<br />
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A more important implication relates to geologic disposal itself. The plans for the (now likely <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/12/yucca-mountain-is-dead-long-live-yucca.html"><i>former</i></a>) Yucca Mountain site called for a 50-75 year "retrievability" window; in other words, the repository was to be operated for an extended period which would allow for retrieval of used fuel out of the repository for other uses. (After the retrieval period, it was generally assumed if no use case had emerged by this point, permanently closing the repository was the most reasonable option). <br />
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Designing a repository with future retrievability in mind doesn't come for free; it essentially adds another engineering constraint (read: cost) to the problem and ultimately requires further analysis of how the repository will perform in containing waste in addition to the "post-closure" period. (It also tends to bias one's choice of geology - a feature of salt-based repositories like <a href="http://wipp.energy.gov/">WIPP</a> is that they are explicitly <i>not</i> designed to be retrievable - the heat from nuclear waste packages generally causes salt to plastically deform around waste packages, effectively "sealing them in.")<br />
<br />
Thus, figuring out what spent fuel has little potential prospect for future recovery represents an technical triage which can help simplify a future repository design (as well as open up options for where such repositories might be located). In essence, separating out the "wheat" (fuel more useful for recovery) from the "chaff" (fuel which has limited potential for recovery) allows for a more intelligent approach to used fuel disposition which can ultimately make constructing a future permanent geologic repository cheaper and easier.<br />
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Of course, the standard caveat applies: the hardest part of opening any geologic repository has <i>never</i> been technical so much as it has <i>political</i>. Nonetheless, the ORNL report offers a rather bracing conclusion as to what a future U.S. fuel cycle may look like, even if the decision is made to restart reprocessing in the U.S. Ultimately, the vast majority of the current inventory of used nuclear fuel may yet still be destined for direct disposal, simply due to the realities of waiting over three decades before finally deciding to reconsider our rather ill-fated national decision to abandon a closed nuclear fuel cycle.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-20789114213556221272013-01-03T09:30:00.000-05:002013-01-03T16:36:16.955-05:00Scientagonism: The problem of antagonistic science communicationA recent column by Daniel Sarewitz in <i>Nature</i> on <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/science-must-be-seen-to-bridge-the-political-divide-1.12119">bridging the "partisan divide"</a> with respect to public perception of science inspired some spirited debate over on <a href="https://twitter.com/sskutnik">my twitter feed</a> yesterday. The short version goes something like this: scientists are often perceived as being in the thrall of Democrats, exposing the greater scientific enterprise to being undermined as simply another partisan front (or, alternatively factionalizing, wherein partisan camps each bring in their own "experts" an accuse the other side of "junk science). None of this is helped by scientists who go out of their way to bring on their antagonism - see, for example, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/472355-an-open-letter-to-the-american-people.html">the letter signed by 68 Nobel laureates</a> endorsing President Obama over Mitt Romney in the last election (in which Sarewitz notes that of the 68, 43 have a record of public donations to candidates, and of these, only five have ever donated to Republican candidates, and none in the last election cycle). It goes without saying that, well-meaning as it may be, openly partisan activities like this <i>aren't helping</i> with the whole "not being perceived as a lockstep Democratic constituency" thing. (Note that I am explicitly <i>not</i> advocating mass abdication of scientists from the political discourse, which a genuinely terrible idea - but rather, a caution that lending one's scientific credibility to openly partisan ventures may <i>not</i> be in the best strategic interests of science...)<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ynHjfLyb65Q/UOWTQheMFTI/AAAAAAAAG_M/SbBwUNpJaRI/s1600/dueling_banjos.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Dueling PhD banjos" border="0" height="185" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ynHjfLyb65Q/UOWTQheMFTI/AAAAAAAAG_M/SbBwUNpJaRI/s200/dueling_banjos.jpg" title="Like this, only more nerdy" width="200" /></a></div>
Sarewitz recommends bringing together scientists with less monolithic political views together to demonstrate overall scientific consensus on key issues such as global climate change and the like, along with ensuring greater ideological balance in high-profile scientific advisory panels. The overall of goal of such an enterprise would be in restoring a public perception of science as a bipartisan enterprise - and in particular, inoculating policies based on scientific recommendations as simply being based upon "partisan science" - or to use a favorite expression - bringing in the "dueling PhD's." Unfortunately, while Sarewitz correctly diagnoses the problem, his solution falls far short.<br />
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The deeper problem here <i>antagonism</i> - both perceived and real. Dan Kahan (of the <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/">Yale Cultural Cognition Project</a>) has prolifically written about the issue of "Cultural Cognition" - in other words, how our individual <i>values</i> can (unconsciously) conspire to shape perceptions of risk to accommodate our pre-existing worldviews (something I've discussed prior in how this relates to <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/04/cultural-cognition-of-risk-and.html">public perception of risk and nuclear energy</a>) - also known as <i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motivated_reasoning">motivated reasoning</a>.</i> In essence, the mind rebels against cognitive dissonance and will do what it takes to ensure such is resolved - namely by shaping our perceptions to confirm previously-held beliefs. Ideology, as it turns out, is an extremely effective marker for predicting risk perception - and more distressingly, these differences in perception grow <i>more</i> pronounced with "high-information" individuals, strongly pointing to the existence of motivated reasoning.<br />
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<b>So what does all of this have to do with antagonism?</b> Quite simply: <i>everything</i>. People will by nature rebel against information perceived to be antagonistic to their worldviews - downplaying evidence of phenomena that threatens their worldviews. (Kahan notes how this cuts several ways - both in how the threat of global climate change threatens market-oriented views of individualists and hierachists, and how the associations of nuclear power with "big business" and highly concentrated capital raises the hackles of those of more egalitarian and communitarian mindsets.) These associations are particularly acute when said scientific issues are charged with a single solution - such as in the case of climate, direct government intervention into the economy to regulate carbon dioxide emissions.<br />
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One of the more interesting outcomes of some of Kahan's experimental work has been in strategies toward <i>de-</i>polarization - science communication strategies which seek to minimize these perception gaps, namely by presenting scientific information in a way which seeks to <i>minimize</i> antagonism toward deeply-held values. An example of this depolarization with respect to climate change is of course nuclear energy (along with geo-engineering); when communication of climate risks is presented with policy prescriptions of increased use of nuclear energy or new technologies such as geoengineering, <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/browse-papers/geoengineering-and-the-science-communication-environment-a-c.html">individuals oriented toward skepticism of climate risks become <i>more</i> receptive</a> - in other words, the use of framing has a demonstrable <i>de-polarizing effect</i>. Why? Namely because the science is now presented in a context where it is <i>no longer threatening</i> to the worldview of the listener.<br />
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And yet too often in science communication (and at times among nuclear advocates as well) there is the very <i>opposite </i>at work - science is presented as antagonistically as possible to the audience - as if somehow dismissing climate skeptics and religious fundamentalists as stupid and venal will cow them into belief. (Once again, to my horror I have seen the same phenomenon at work in certain discussions over nuclear energy - where those representing the house will shout down any who dare trespass in their domain instead of making any attempt at reasonable engagement.)<br />
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The same goes as well for the policies that from the science - absolutist arguments that inherently tie science to <i>one</i> favored set of policies - rather than a panoply of potential solutions. Such strategies are practically an open <i>invitation</i> to partisanship and motivated reasoning, and yet all too often are the standard for how high-profile science communication on controversial issues gets done. (Similarly, attempts to reconcile the idea of science as not being fundamentally incompatible or at odds with various political and religious values are frequently dismissed as at best naive and at worst "selling out" science.) It is in these cases where members of the scientific community in fact <i>become their own worst enemies</i> - namely in hardening an opposition predicated on the idea that certain scientific findings are fundamentally antagonistic to their values (and thus we return to the realm of "dueling PhD's...")<br />
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To put it on a meta level for a moment - getting the public to accept the scientific process as a means of understanding the natural world is in essence getting them to agree upon a common source for <i>facts</i>. But the role of science communication is not and <i>should not</i> be a platform for antagonizing whatever misguided metaphysical or theological beliefs the speaker believes the audience has. In other words, science can and should speak to facts and leave issues of metaphysics to others. (Or, to put it yet another way as I did on Twitter - is your goal to change beliefs over <i>scientific facts</i> or <i>religious theology?</i>)<br />
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This problem of "dueling PhD's" - or to put it another way, competing <i>certifications</i> on science, and in turn what experts we trust inherently come back to these kinds of issues. Kahan recently posted an interesting four-part essay (drawing heavily on the ideas of Karl Popper) on the notion of a "Liberal Republic of Science" (<a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2012/11/18/the-liberal-republic-of-science-part-1-the-concept-of-politi.html">I</a>, <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2012/11/19/the-liberal-republic-of-science-part-2-what-is-it.html">II</a>, <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2012/11/20/the-liberal-republic-of-science-part-3-poppers-revenge.html">III</a>, <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2012/11/21/the-liberal-republic-of-science-part-4-a-new-political-scien.html">IV</a>) - discussing how a key issue which arises even in societies which broadly accept science as a foundation of knowledge is in the inevitable conflicts of how we certify these sources of facts - in other words, <i>the dueling PhDs</i>. (Kahan stresses that in his view, much of the current wrangling over hot-button issues like climate, nuclear power, and vaccines is not even a question of <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2012/11/20/the-liberal-republic-of-science-part-3-poppers-revenge.html"><i>who</i> accepts science as a source of knowledge</a> as it is the process of how our values shape <i>whose</i> information we certify as credible - which again, comes back to how this information validates existing value systems. Kahan's argument is thus <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2012/11/21/the-liberal-republic-of-science-part-4-a-new-political-scien.html">for a science <i>of</i> science communication.</a>) Ultimately this once again returns to the issue of antagonism - science presented in a way which is directly <i>antagonistic</i> to the values of the listener will be stripped of credibility in favor of information from sources which does <i>not</i> antagonize values. (Thus we get to Kahan's argument for a science of science communication - determining the best means of ensuring the best and most accurate scientific information is received and <i>accepted</i> by the overall public.)<br />
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Growing a consensus on science as a source of knowledge (or further, developing a common understanding on the same core set of scientific <i>facts</i>) does <i>not</i> imply unanimity in <i>policy</i> ends (and nor should it!), namely because policy is inherently a <i>normative</i> process. More importantly, dropping an explicitly antagonistic communication strategy in favor of one more easily accommodating to diverse values doesn't it in any way imply "giving in" or "selling out" science (as my position has been rather uncharitably characterized). Above all else, the goal here is to get people recognize a common starting point for facts, and letting the implications - both policy and metaphysical - flow from this common starting point. Getting people to agree to the <i>reality</i> of climate change does <i>not</i> imply unanimity about what to <i>do </i>about it, namely because this inherently involves value judgments over the required trade-offs - and of course the same is true for nuclear energy as well. What it <i>does</i> do however is to ensure a more honest, reasoned, and <i>productive </i>discussion of the available options.<br />
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Again, however - this requires a strategy for science communication that inherently puts aside antagonism and focuses upon <i>compatibility</i> with existing values. Two recent posts - one by <a class="g-profile" href="http://plus.google.com/105580126357630197465" target="_blank">+Suzanne Hobbs Baker</a> at the <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/12/12/timing-framing-nuclear-climate-change/">ANS Nuclear Cafe</a> and one by <a class="g-profile" href="http://plus.google.com/115000450346159021065" target="_blank">+Rod Adams</a> at <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/12/fighting-climate-change-skeptics-in-the-pro-nuclear-community.html">Atomic Insights</a> fit well into what I'm proposing. Both discuss the role of communicating the value of nuclear energy as a strategy for combating climate change - Suzy within the context of <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/12/12/timing-framing-nuclear-climate-change/">framing nuclear as an ally of environmentalism in the face of climate change</a>, and Rod in regards to how because discussions of climate are often so charged even within pro-nuclear communities that such debates become toxic (and thus are often placed strictly off-limits), thus <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/12/fighting-climate-change-skeptics-in-the-pro-nuclear-community.html">depriving the nuclear community of a key message in communicating with the public</a>. Both of them are focusing on how<i> </i>presenting nuclear as explicitly compatible with concerns with the environment can perhaps help to potentially forge partnerships from communities skeptical (and even at times adversarial) to one another. (And again, to emphasize - a deep concern over how to rectify doing something about climate change while maintaining our present standard of living is <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/06/why-i-became-nuclear-engineer.html">one of the fundamental reasons I decided to change careers...</a>)<br />
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This is something that I myself have tried to embrace myself when dealing with audiences hostile to nuclear (such as the <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/09/mixing-it-up-over-mox-wrapup-from.html">NNSA hearing on disposing of surplus weapons plutonium in MOX fuel in Chattanooga</a>, back in September). The very first thing I acknowledged to the audience is that we clearly have disparate opinions about nuclear energy (ones unlikely to be resolved in the span of a single evening) but that <i>everyone</i> in the room shared common concerns over peace and security - our preferred means of achieving this ("...to MOX or not to MOX, that is the question...") simply differed. I'm not so fantastically egotistical as to believe this changed the entire tone of the meeting (there were still certainly rancorous and loud comments by the opposition), but I do sincerely believe starting from a position of common values and as much as possible eschewing antagonism helped to provoke thoughtful discussions which occurred afterwards (and at least some civility during).<br />
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None of this implies stepping down antagonism in science communication is a magic-bullet or a panacea, nor will it necessarily work in all cases (such as dealing with perhaps the most hardened zealots - be they of the anti-nuclear or fundamentalist variety...) But what it <i>can</i> do (in fact, what folks like Kahan have explicitly <i>demonstrated </i>when it comes to "compatabalist" communication strategies), is that it can help to detoxify these kinds of discussions, namely by pulling people <i>away </i>from the brink by <i>not </i>threatening their deeper values. <b>That in itself would be progress.</b>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-51300815246753701892012-12-13T16:56:00.000-05:002012-12-13T21:27:22.589-05:00Spent nuclear fuel disposal is not a "subsidy"One thing that tends to raise my hackles without fail is when the inevitable game of "<i>Name the Energy Subsidy!</i>" comes up, somehow the issue of spent nuclear fuel disposition gets lumped in. Namely because spent fuel management is pretty much the <i>opposite</i> of what is typically thought of as a "subsidy."<br />
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To give some background - prior to 1982, the management of spent nuclear fuel was the sole province of nuclear generators. In this regard, coupled with the dual expectation that uranium resources would be relatively scarce and that fast "breeder" reactors would be used to create a virtually inexhaustible source of plutonium-based fuels from non-fissile U-238, the nuclear industry began private-sector arrangements toward chemical reprocessing and recovery of uranium and plutonium from spent fuel. (This still leaves the issue of locating a high-level waste repository for the remaining radioactive materials not recycled, however the mass and volume of said materials would be substantially reduced).<br />
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This continued until 1976, when President Ford issued a temporary moratorium on civilian reprocessing of spent fuel, followed by President Carter's (infamous) 1977 executive order permanently banning it, based on international nonproliferation concerns. (Reagan would later reverse this order, but the damage by that time had been done). This came just as plans were underway to by Allied General Nuclear Services open a relatively advanced reprocessing facility in Barnwell, South Carolina. Ford's (and subsequently Carter's) executive orders came after $500-700 million had already been committed to the Barnwell facility. It is one of many sobering lessons in the history of the nuclear industry how mercurial shifts in politics can bring about financial ruin when dealing with capital-intensive investments.<br />
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Fast-forward to 1982 - faced with a crisis in managing spent fuel brought about by the sudden halt in the domestic reprocessing industry, Congress passed the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Waste_Policy_Act">Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982</a>. One of the main provisions of this act is that the federal government assumes the role of locating and constructing a suitable geologic repository for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel. (The subsequent 1987 amendments, termed the "Screw Nevada" bill, amended the 1982 Act, short-circuiting the site selection process to designate Yucca Mountain as the sole candidate site, in part due perceived cost savings by narrowing down the site selection process.)<br />
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[As an aside, there are two excellent articles I can recommend to those more interested in a full treatment of the history of how we came to where we are today - the first, <a href="http://www.powermag.com/nuclear/The-U-S-Spent-Nuclear-Fuel-Policy-Road-to-Nowhere_2651.html">"The U.S. Spent Nuclear Fuel Policy: Road to Nowhere"</a> by James M. Hylko and Dr. Robert Peltier, PE, which focuses more on the chronology of U.S. high-level waste management, and the second, a recent article in <i>The New Atlantis</i>, <a href="http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/yucca-mountain-a-post-mortem">"Yucca Mountain: A Post-Mortem"</a> by Adam White, which delves more into the politics of Yucca Mountain.]<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bZMVbR0ASWo/UMpMd3Z3CFI/AAAAAAAAG8M/1ziS_86_zVQ/s1600/Bizarro-animated.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="bizzaro subsidies" border="0" height="200" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bZMVbR0ASWo/UMpMd3Z3CFI/AAAAAAAAG8M/1ziS_86_zVQ/s200/Bizarro-animated.jpg" title="Okay, maybe THIS guy might think it's a subsidy..." width="200" /></a></div>
However, a key facet of this bill which is often overlooked is the fact that <b>the industry is required to pay for the cost of disposal</b>; specifically, they pay a fee of 1 mil/kWh ($1/MWh) of nuclear electricity generated. In other words, the Nuclear Waste Policy Act is by its very nature a "polluter pays" arrangement (which really, is as it should be). To date, the Nuclear Waste Fund has accumulated nearly $30 billion (accounting for accumulated interest), while spending about $8 billion on site characterization for the Yucca Mountain Project. Only in Bizarro-world is a net payment of $22 billion from the utilities (and, by proxy, electricity consumers) to the federal government considered a "subsidy." One can quibble over whether the sum is sufficient - right now the fee generates about $750 million per year - but the fact is, no one's getting a free ride on that front.<br />
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So I was somewhat distressed to see the waste "subsidy" canard come up this <a href="http://scholarsandrogues.com/2012/12/12/when-and-why-should-an-energy-subsidy-end/">discussion of energy subsides over at Scholars and Rogues</a>. Specifically, a couple of quotes jumped out at me:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The continuing cost of such temporary storage, and the nearly $100
billion needed for “research, construction and operation of the geologic
repository over a 150 year period” at Yucca Mountain, <i>is a subsidy for the nuclear industry</i>.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Fifty-five thousand tons of spent fuel rods, with no permanent home
in sight, suggest nuclear subsidies will continue. But before Congress,
presumably with White House “cooperation,” ends any energy subsidy,
perhaps they’ll take time out from their internecine bickering to
actually produce a coherent national energy policy that reflects all
available technologies and considers the viability of energy
technologies in light of fossil fuel emissions decimating the global
climate.</blockquote>
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Y3ioTQfS9C4/TYF8bKU0BdI/AAAAAAAAEs4/tnjrFq6NXj0/s1600/37182.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="spent fuel pool subsidy" border="0" height="128" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Y3ioTQfS9C4/TYF8bKU0BdI/AAAAAAAAEs4/tnjrFq6NXj0/s200/37182.gif" title="Apparently it's still a subsidy even when you pay for it yourself..." width="200" /></a>Huh? In what universe is an industry tasked with the responsibility of paying for its own waste disposal (particularly after the utter and repeated failure of the federal government to live up to its contractual obligations with utilities) a "subsidy?" Much of the rest of the article contains some risible arguments about subsidies to the nuclear industry (the value of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price-Anderson_Nuclear_Industries_Indemnity_Act">Price-Anderson Act</a> is a contentious issue, namely because while it does act as a liability backstop for nuclear accidents, <i>not a single dime has ever been paid out under the act; </i>further is the cross-insurance requirement that literally guarantees "an accident anywhere is an accident everywhere"); however, given that I have a day job, I really didn't feel like debating every single claim. Needless to say though, the issue about calling waste management a "subsidy" struck me as profoundly incorrect.<br />
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So, in the spirit of <a href="http://www.atomicinsights.com/">Rod Adams</a>, I left a comment, but I decided to share my comment here as well. (Forgive my long-windedness...)<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I will leave the debate over some of the "subsidies" you bring up for others, but there is one major issue I must take issue with - you state the cost of spent nuclear fuel storage is a cost borne by taxpayers (i.e., a subsidy). This is most explicitly not true. <br />
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First, the cost of on-site storage is explicitly paid for by the generating utilities (i.e., under the law, this is their obligation) - not the federal government. Second, per the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, nuclear operators have been required to pay a fee of 1 mil/kWh of nuclear electricity generated (i.e., $1/MWh) to cover the costs of geologic disposal. (Per the NWPA, the federal government assumed the responsibility for permanent geologic disposal - in 1987, this was amended to select the Yucca Mountain site.)<br />
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In this time, the federal government has collected nearly $30 billion (including accumulated interest) from the utilities to cover the costs of Yucca, with about $8 billion being spent in site characterization. This most certainly does not look like a subsidy in the conventional sense.<br />
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One can argue whether the nuclear waste fee is sufficient to cover future costs - at present, the waste fund accumulates about $750 million per year, and will continue to do so as long as the reactor fleet operates. One could likewise argue with your characterization of "no permanent solution" - geologic disposal, by its very nature, is designed to be a "permanent" solution, namely by placing spent fuel in long-term isolation from humans and the environment. And this is not the only waste disposition strategy available - other strategies, like reprocessing to separate out shorter-lived fission products from still-useful actinides can both substantially reduce waste volume and the overall long-term radioactivity (i.e., the actinides, like Pu and other fissionable heavy metals, are the majority of the "long tail" of radioactivity in spent fuel - nearly all of the rest is gone after around 300 years). However, I would also point out that it was political decisions by the federal government in the 1970s that ended U.S. reprocessing efforts being undertaken by private industry - and thus left the federal government in the role of assuming responsibility for spent fuel disposal.<br />
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Overall though, the fact that the nuclear industry is responsible for paying its own way with regards to spent fuel disposal significantly undercuts the argument that this constitutes a "subsidy" in any form.<br />
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Meanwhile, what other energy sector requires that hazardous wastes be so methodically isolated from humankind until the end of time? Certainly coal ash has toxic heavy metals (lead and mercury) which never become less toxic, as do older generations of photovoltaic cells. I don't say this to diminish the challenge in responsibly managing nuclear waste, but rather to point out that this is a more universal problem - the only difference is that nuclear is the only sector actually held to account for this negative externality, including paying for the actual costs of permanent disposal.</blockquote>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-34114705610090311092012-12-03T16:47:00.001-05:002012-12-03T21:28:20.328-05:00Yucca Mountain is dead. Long live Yucca Mountain!Last October, during the Republican primaries, I made a prediction regarding the future of Yucca Mountain - namely, <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/10/gop-debate-dont-bet-on-yucca-mountain.html">don't bet on it</a>. Not, of course, because it's particularly deficient on a technical level (it's not perfect, but you can judge the <a href="http://energy.gov/downloads/yucca-mountain-science-and-engineering-report">science that went into it for yourself</a>.) But rather, the battle for Yucca mountain left its opponents holding the political high ground - particularly when even none of the Republican hopefuls would defend the site at risk of angering Nevada voters.<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2nMAQwJOj7g/UL0P3K7S5wI/AAAAAAAAG4o/vXBo5AXFrGQ/s1600/Yucca_Mountain_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Yucca Mountain" border="0" height="256" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2nMAQwJOj7g/UL0P3K7S5wI/AAAAAAAAG4o/vXBo5AXFrGQ/s320/Yucca_Mountain_2.jpg" title="Yucca Mountain: 1987-2010. RIP" width="320" /></a></div>
Skip forward to today. Mitt Romney (last seen saying anything to the residents of Nevada that he think would lead to his election) has lost, meaning any possibility of a reversal of fortune for Yucca Mountain is pretty much dead in the water for the next four years (and likely now for all time).<br />
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Politically, not much has changed. Harry Reid still wields an inexplicable* position of influence over the Senate, and Obama still holds the presidency. Absent a surprise intervention by the Supreme Court on the Yucca licensing issue or a sudden change of heart by the residents of Nevada outside of Nye county (the potential host of Yucca Mountain, and generally more supportive overall of the project, namely because of the perceived benefits in terms of high-paying jobs and local investment which generally balance out perceived risks), it is unlikely anything much is going to happen.<br />
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(*One of my students in my Nuclear Waste Management class asked me how
Harry Reid managed to ascend to such a position of influence from what
is otherwise an inconsequential state - to which I had to answer, <a href="http://www.phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=749">"I don't know, it is beyond the scope of this class."</a> I really don't have a
good answer for this one.) <br />
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As an aside, relevant to this discussion is <a href="http://www.new.ans.org/pubs/magazines/download/a_840">an interview</a> in this month's <i>Nuclear News</i> with Chairwoman Allison MacFarlane:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Q: Do you have technical concerns about a repository at Yucca Mountain, such as the rock form or the possibility of contact with an aquifer? </i>
<br />
<br />
Let me explain. The technical analysis that I did on Yucca Mountain was in the pre-2002 time frame. Since then, in 2008, the Department of Energy submitted a license application. Then the NRC did some technical analysis. <b>I haven’t looked at either of those. So I haven’t updated myself on the technical situation or on any new information that’s come in within the last 10 years.</b> And so, as a careful scientist, I would hold off on making any judgment.</blockquote>
(Emphasis mine.)<br />
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On one hand, as a fellow scientist, I appreciate Dr. MacFarlane's reticence toward commenting on a technical issue which she herself recognizes that she is not current on. On the other hand, it is somewhat distressing that the <i>chairwoman of the NRC</i> would not deign to familiarize herself with those very same findings. (I realize that Dr. MacFarlane obviously has a very full agenda, but nonetheless given that her specialty with geologic disposal of nuclear wastes was one of her core competencies given for her nomination to head the agency, the fact that she has been an extremely outspoken critic of Yucca Mountain, and the fact that this is a timely and controversial topic facing her agency, one would think that she might find the time for a bit of... "light weekend reading...")<br />
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<h3>
Process <i>matters</i></h3>
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By this point, your response is probably something along the lines of, "Thanks for the update on News of the Obvious." But to be honest, it seems like a great many people haven't seemed to get the memo yet. Following a discussion on <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/12/01/nuclear-waste-gone-from-hurricane-sandys-path/">Jim Conca's recent <i>Forbes</i> piece</a> featuring WIPP (the <a href="http://wipp.energy.gov/">Waste Isolation Pilot Project</a> in Carlsbad, NM, which is responsible for handling military-origin transuranic wastes to be buried deep in salt bed caverns), the question was inevitably asked - "If WIPP is working, why can't Yucca Mountain?"<br />
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Herein lies the problem. Debates over the technical details of Yucca aside (details which have been exhaustively studied for nearly two decades), it was <i>never</i> about technical feasibility. One of the most salient arguments I have tried to convey upon my students (and anyone else unfortunate enough to be caught within earshot) is that <i>process matters</i>. Again and again this has been emphasized - by myself and by the <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/09/dissecting-brc-report-part-i-where-they.html">findings of the Blue Ribbon Commission themselves</a>. (As well as by social science experts - see for example, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/25/AR2010062502158_pf.html">this decent op-ed by Chris Mooney</a> on science communication right around the time Yucca faced the axe.)<br />
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WIPP worked namely because WIPP made sure to do the process <b>right</b>. From the start, WIPP focused on public engagement and local consent - trying to build understanding and consensus <i>before</i> they broke ground. And to that end, they've been remarkably successful. WIPP enjoys extremely high levels of support from the local Carlsbad community, largely in part due to the influx of high-paying jobs it has brought an otherwise very rural economy. And by committing to transparency and public oversight from the start, the WIPP project managed to soften much of the opposition which may have otherwise doomed such a project - namely because the public felt like both they had a <i>say</i> and that the process was fair and trustworthy. (Mind you, it is unlikely one will ever gain complete consensus - namely because there are some who persist in asserting that nuclear waste is an "unsolvable" problem and frankly have no interest <i>in</i> solving it...)<br />
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But far too often in the technical community, there is an attitude that this process can be circumvented. "Who cares what the unwashed masses think? We're right and they're not" - a fine ethos for a dictatorship run by scientists and engineers, a recipe for repeated and painful failure in a democracy. This is the attitude that I see prevailing each and every time I hear someone hammer on why we need to keep pushing on Yucca Mountain - either by forcing a showdown on the licensing process or some other means. And let me reiterate - on a technical basis, I think Yucca Mountain is a <i>sufficient</i> (not ideal, namely because it consigns otherwise recoverable resources to waste, but <i>sufficient</i>) solution.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-71qYtuEQiKU/UL0VTgCNVQI/AAAAAAAAG40/9MuVP48WdHY/s1600/cold-day-in-hell.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Hell freezes over." border="0" height="177" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-71qYtuEQiKU/UL0VTgCNVQI/AAAAAAAAG40/9MuVP48WdHY/s320/cold-day-in-hell.jpg" title="Thermodynamically possible, statistically improbable. But hey, it could happen." width="320" /></a><br />
Here's the problem - <i>it's off the table</i>. There is about a snowball's chance in hell of any of the following factors aligning to rescue Yucca Mountain right now: Chairwoman MacFarlane rescuing the Yucca Mountain license (previously withdrawn with prejudice by Secretary Chu), a sudden reversal in position by President Obama, an intervention by the Supreme Court to finish the Yucca Mountain licensing evaluation, a marked shift of opinion in the state of Nevada, or the sudden departure of Sen. Harry Reid.<br />
<br />
Like it or not, the political deck has been stacked against Yucca. Perhaps why it's so hard for technical folks to accept is because of this - it's a victory of politics over science - and unabashedly so. But even assuming Yucca were never to have been derailed by an opportunistic president looking to make a deal with an influential senator, the problems at the core still remain - a process built on a foundation of rolling over state-level consent. It is hardly believable that the opposition which has escalated through the courts up until the 2010 would suddenly evaporate upon Yucca's grand opening. Instead, it is far more likely that another decade of contentious (and expensive) lawsuits would have followed, bankrolled (in somewhat ironic fashion) by the same funds legally obligated to the state of Nevada for hosting the repository by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act.<br />
<br />
<h3>
$8 billion and all I got was this lousy blog post</h3>
<br />
Hence my point of emphasis to folks still pushing Yucca Mountain: <i><b>he's dead, Jim</b></i>. Let this one go and start thinking about what to do <i>right now</i> while we begin the process again, this time hopefully learning something from our $8 billion lesson.<br />
<br />
The sunk cost is perhaps what is hard for most to accept, particularly in the nuclear community. $8 billion is a high price to pay for learning to respect the <i>process</i> of siting a repository in equal measure to the level of technical effort that went into it. But again, this is where the hard-nosed realism of technical folks <i>must </i>prevail - what do you hope to do now? Wishing for a more favorable political situation won't bring back your $8 billion or put a single fuel assembly into the ground. Instead, it's going to require a hard gut check and some long thinking about where we go from here.<br />
<br />
<h3>
So what now?</h3>
Let me quote now from wisdom of the Bard Jagger: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
You can't always get what you want<br />
But if you try sometimes, you just might find<br />
You get what you need</blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HxUeI_Zd50c/TYF81m_ioEI/AAAAAAAAEs8/BH9dnC4EjVw/s1600/20100907-014.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Dry cask storage" border="0" height="219" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HxUeI_Zd50c/TYF81m_ioEI/AAAAAAAAEs8/BH9dnC4EjVw/s320/20100907-014.jpg" title="The future of nuclear waste management - for now" width="320" /></a></div>
In the short term, what is needed is some means of storing spent fuel, particularly from already-decommissioned sites (i.e., "orphaned fuel") in a consolidated interim storage facility. Such a facility would be inherently temporary by nature, something which can be enforced by contractual penalties as a means of making such a site more attractive to the host community. Fuel would be kept in concrete storage casks, where it is currently safely licensed to be kept for periods of up to 60 years, and may potentially be safely stored for up to 100-200 years, following further study.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, the main upshot of such a move to interim storage is that it provides a workable solution for the time being until the process of siting a repository can be restarted (which it inevitably must be). This something both recommended by the BRC and <a href="http://www.aip.org/fyi/2012/133.html">is now being proposed</a> by outgoing Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM). Whether it or not it goes anywhere in Congress is anyone's guess (although it will likely and unfortunately be eclipsed by much of the talk of the coming "fiscal cliff.")<br />
<br />
My own feelings on interim storage have evolved somewhat over the years; it was not long ago that <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/09/dissecting-brc-report-part-ii-where.html">I was critical of such a strategy</a>, namely because it felt like "kicking the can down the road" to future generations. But here's the rub - as much as I generally favor strategies like reprocessing on the grounds of energy recovery, as far as economics go, it simply can't compete with the cost of mining new uranium, even <i>with</i> the repository cost tacked on - and the requisite technologies like fast-spectrum reactors which can effectively transmute and fission long-lived actinides (thermal spectrum, "light water" reactors like those we run now aren't particularly efficient at this) - simply aren't here yet. In that sense, absent the infrastructure to reprocess and effectively burn all of the long-lived constituents of used fuel (not just plutonium), it may just make sense to let it sit around for awhile under well-monitored conditions. Even assuming technology never progresses forward, the end result is a cooler, less radioactive fuel that is less expensive to dispose of. (It is one of the few problems in life that manages to get cheaper the longer you wait.)<br />
<br />
Such a position doesn't necessarily sit perfectly with me - as a technical person, I have a bias toward action. (Which of course would be why my research focuses on advanced waste management and recovery strategies). But such a solution is certainly better than a complete failure of the federal government to meet its obligations to ratepayers (i.e., consumers of nuclear electricity) who have paid $30 billion over the last two decades to handle this problem, only to be met with nothing to show for it.<br />
<br />
Siting even an interim storage for used fuel won't be trivial - it will likely run into some of the same political challenges Yucca Mountain has faced, if the fate of the proposed <a href="http://www.privatefuelstorage.com/">Private Fuel Storage facility</a> in Utah is any indication. (PFS has negotiated with a Native American tribe - the Skull Valley Band of the Goshute Tribe - to host such a facility. Despite the fact that the facility is on tribal lands, the state of Utah has attempted to do everything in its power to block the proposed facility - namely by denying rail and road access.) But it may serve as a useful trial run for getting the process right when it comes to the "real thing," i.e., siting a permanent geologic repository.<br />
<br />
On a final note, I will be supervising my students' end of semester projects this evening. The task I assigned them was to propose an amendment to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, taking into account the failures of U.S. high-level waste management policy (including a technical analysis of their proposed alternatives compared to the "baseline" scenario). It should be interesting to see what they come up with.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-10478367790702109642012-11-11T09:55:00.001-05:002012-11-11T09:59:21.585-05:00What is most important to outreach? Just showing up.In my <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/09/mixing-it-up-over-mox-wrapup-from.html">prior wrap-up</a> over the Chattanooga MOX hearing, one of the key takeaway lessons for nuclear outreach I found while helping to organize students attending the NNSA hearing on surplus weapons-grade plutonium disposition in MOX fuel is this: <b>Showing up matters</b>.<br />
<br />
In fact, there's an old Woody Allen quote circulating around which summarizes this best:<br />
<blockquote>
80% of success is just showing up.</blockquote>
In a later interview, <a href="http://collider.com/entertainment/interviews/article.asp/aid/8878/tcid/1/pg/2">Allen would extend upon his prior quip</a>:
<br />
<blockquote>
I made the statement years ago which is often quoted that 80 percent of life is showing up. People used to always say to me that they wanted to write a play, they wanted to write a movie, they wanted to write a novel, and the couple of people that did it were 80 percent of the way to having something happen. All the other people struck out without ever getting that pack. They couldn’t do it, that’s why they don’t accomplish a thing, they don’t do the thing, so once you do it, if you actually write your film script, or write your novel, you are more than half way towards something good happening. So that I was say my biggest life lesson that has worked. All others have failed me.</blockquote>
Why bring all of this up again? Namely because I think a recent outreach case organized by Meredith Angwin (of <a href="http://yesvy.blogspot.com/">Yes Vermont Yankee</a>) and Howard Shaffer at a recent public hearing in support of the Vermont Yankee reactor <a href="http://yesvy.blogspot.com/2012/11/more-nuclear-supporters-than-opponents.html">so perfectly reinforces this point</a>. Angwin and Shaffer managed to organize a crowd of supporters of the plant for a public hearing on its renewal for a Certificate of Public Good (required for the plant to continue to do business in the state - this in spite of the fact that the actual safety license to operate is controlled exclusively by the NRC). In fact, they managed to do this and then some, with supporters outnumbering opponents three-to-one.<br />
<br />
The result? <a href="http://www.reformer.com/localnews/ci_21953244/public-service-board-takes-yankee-testimony-vernon">News coverage of the event</a> represents <i>their</i> side and<i> their </i>message in addition to the opponents. They (VY supporters) controlled the tone of the meeting, keeping it civil and respectful. (This is in marked contrast to some meetings where Angwin reports being hopelessly outnumbered - and thus where the tone is decidedly different).<br />
<br />
The exact same thing was seen when one contrasts the <a href="http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2012/sep/12/chattanooga-meeting-on-mox-fuel-draws-a-crowd/">meeting coverage of NNSA hearings in Chattanooga</a> versus meetings <a href="http://decaturdaily.com/stories/MOX-or-not-Govt-likes-weapons-fuel-public-doesnt,102677?content_source=&category_id=11&search_filter=&event_mode=&event_ts_from=&list_type=&order_by=&order_sort=&content_class=&sub_type=stories&town_id=">later that week in Decatur, AL</a> (closer to the Brown's Ferry reactor, a TVA candidate site for MOX). With nuclear supporters absent, the "public" consisted of professional anti-nuclear activists going from meeting to meeting repeating the same (debunked) arguments. (Notice that certain individuals, like Tom Clements of the Alliance for Nuclear Accountability, show up multiple times). The tone of the stories reflects the absence of supporters - as a result, opponents have the narrative to themselves - they <i>are</i> the public. When supporters were present (as in Chattanooga), it is reported as <a href="http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2012/sep/12/chattanooga-meeting-on-mox-fuel-draws-a-crowd/">"spirited debate"</a> - the existence of a pro-nuclear side is acknowledged.<br />
<br />
In other words, <i>the media won't come find you if you're not there</i>. What makes up much of reporting, particularly at the local level like this, is storytelling. When one side is absent, <i>their story doesn't get told</i>. Reporters aren't going to seek it out - in fact, they're unlikely to even acknowledge its existence. <b>This is why showing up matters so much. </b>Ultimately, the way most of the public will learn about issues like MOX (or Vermont Yankee, etc.) will not be through direct contact with opponents or supporters, but rather through reported accounts in the media - which means if one side doesn't show up, the public simply will not know about it. It's simply not part of the narrative.<br />
<br />
<hr width="200" />
<br />
As an aside, I am currently at the <a href="http://www.new.ans.org/meetings/m_79">ANS Winter Meeting</a> in San Diego, CA - do say hello if you catch me sometime while I'm there. (I already had the pleasure of meeting Will Davis of <a href="http://atomicpowerreview.blogspot.com/">Atomic Power Review</a> for the first time last night, and I'm hoping to run into more folks from the online community). This probably explains my itching to emphasize the importance of outreach so much, of course - namely because I'm also going to be talking about some of these same important lessons with other nuclear professionals while I'm here.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-54624306739491658162012-10-20T13:45:00.001-04:002012-10-20T18:11:50.204-04:00Does nuclear lack a natural constituency?A quick Turing test from the prior round of U.S. presidential debates - see if you can spot the speaker:<br />
<blockquote>
We have increased oil production to the highest levels in 16 years. Natural gas production is the highest it's been in decades. We have seen increases in coal production and coal employment.</blockquote>
<blockquote>
Look, I want to make sure we use our oil, our coal, our gas, our nuclear, our renewables. I believe very much in our renewable capabilities; ethanol, wind, solar will be an important part of our energy mix.</blockquote>
<blockquote>
Number three, we've got to control our own energy. Now, not only oil and natural gas, which we've been investing in; but also, we've got to make sure we're building the energy source of the future, not just thinking about next year, but ten years from now, 20 years from now. That's why we've invested in solar and wind and biofuels, energy efficient cars.</blockquote>
<blockquote>
Let's take advantage of the energy resources we have, as well as the energy sources for the future. And if we do that, if we do what I'm planning on doing, which is getting us energy independent, North America energy independence within eight years, you're going to see manufacturing jobs come back. Because our energy is low cost, that are already beginning to come back because of our abundant energy.</blockquote>
In order: Obama, Romney, Obama, Romney. Most notably, while the word "energy" showed up 40 times <a href="http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=32A5CB39-C11C-68A5-C4831867713C087F">during last Tuesday's debate</a>, "nuclear" showed up only twice (and only once in the context of energy, within the throwaway line given by Governor Romney above). Compare and contrast with coal (22 appearances), natural gas (8 appearances), oil (26 times), wind (7 times), and solar (3 times).<br />
<br />
It is consistently puzzling how an energy source which supplies about 20% of U.S. baseload electricity and the overwhelming share of its carbon-free energy portfolio manages scarce mention in debates over energy. Instead we have two candidates practically tripping over themselves to extol the virtues of increased fossil fuel production (which, depending on your constituency, will sometimes include a nod to chimerical "clean coal" or carbon sequestration technology) but who can barely suffer more than an obligatory mention of nuclear.<br />
<br />
It isn't because either candidate seems particularly hostile to nuclear (at least, not openly); both have quietly supported nuclear, generally in the context of "all of the above" energy policies which differ primarily in the respective weight given to fossil exploration and renewables. It would seem, as I have often asserted, in a world both where energy scarcity and environmental impacts of energy are at the forefront, opposition to nuclear is a self-marginalizing position. So why it is exactly that it fails to merit more than passing mention? Consensus doesn't seem to be it; if the above ideological Turing test is any indication, both Obama and Romney seem intent upon defying traditional expectations by endorsing (however insincerely) traditionally-favored energy resources of their opponents. (As a result, we have such scintillating "debates" as to which candidate <i>really </i>loves fossil exploration more...)<br />
<br />
The superficial answer commonly given in response to this of course would be that fossil interests (and perhaps, by proxy, renewables, if one is the conspiratorial type) represent tremendous financial interests, and thus, political interests. But this explanation only goes so far - particularly when one looks to polling data as to how <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/04/minding-partisan-gap-partisan-divisions.html">energy preferences break down within the public</a>.<br />
<br />
Rather, I am inclined to wonder if this is a case of where nuclear, unlike fossil and rewnewables, lacks a well-defined constituency - being relegated to a tepid, forgotten center (where it enjoys broad, lukewarm support by many and hot, focused opposition at the fringe). It is perhaps progress (and a keen awareness of the urgency brought on both by the need for action on climate change and developing abundant future energy resources) that nuclear is no longer seen as ideologically confined to the rightward end of the political spectrum; but instead I am forced to once again go back to the hypothesis that we are seeing energy as <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/08/cultural-signaling-and-energy.html">a marker for pre-existing cultural affinities</a>.<br />
<br />
To wit - for all of the talk by both Romney and Obama on developing coal resources, does either seriously expect to see any significant new developments in coal-fired electrical capacity? (A telling example of the direction of things to come is TVA's shuttering of the John Sevier coal plant, which was recently <a href="http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2012/oct/08/natural-gas-gains-use-by-tva-as-generation/">replaced by a combined-cycle natural gas facility</a>. In a single year, <a href="http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2012/oct/08/coal-no-longer-king-tva-region/">TVA's coal portfolio has shifted down from around 50% to 30%</a> - with the gap entirely being made up for by gas.) Even if one <i>does </i>believe new coal-fired generation will emerge, does either seriously believe this will emerge when projected costs for so-called "clean coal" <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#US_Department_of_Energy_estimates">outstrip the production costs of new nuclear</a>?<br />
<br />
Or, more importantly, if support for nuclear was more than token for both candidates, why is it exactly than in Romney's <a href="http://www.mittromney.com/sites/default/files/shared/energy_policy_white_paper_8.23.pdf" rel="nofollow">21-page energy plan</a>, the proposals for nuclear come down to a single bullet point: "Revitalize nuclear power by equipping the NRC to approve new designs and to license approved reactor designs on approved sites within two years." (How this will be accomplished is left as an exercise for the reader). Note the striking absence of any mention of small modular reactors and their potential to revitalize export-driven manufacturing in the U.S., or even such basic measures as reforming antiquated laws restricting vitally-needed foreign investment in new domestic nuclear capacity - nuclear, it would seem, is an afterthought. Nor is it any better with Obama, where his <a href="http://www.barackobama.com/energy" rel="nofollow">campaign's "issues" site for energy</a> lists oil exploration and (inexplicably) clean coal (one gets the feeling we're actually back in the Bush years), but fails to even <i>mention</i> nuclear.<br />
<br />
The very fact that the Romney campaign would speak effusively of renewables as an improbable part of a vague, "all-of-the-above" energy strategy while Obama bafflingly promotes both fossil exploration and dubious "clean coal" technology (see also, vaporware) point to an effort to reach voters not on the rational basis of carefully-considered energy policy, but rather, in a word, pandering. (Yes, <i>quel surprise</i> indeed coming from a political campaign).<br />
<br />
So why is this? Because again, by and large for the public, I am largely convinced that support for particular energy sources comes not from their practical value but from what these <i>represent</i>. It is immaterial as to whether availability and diffusivity inherently limit the ability of renewables to produce electricity at the large, consistent scales required to power modern civilization - because these sources, at their core, represent <i>aspirational</i> goods which somehow magically disconnect environmental consequences from energy. Fossil resources represent <i>abundance</i> - an energy abundance which can be found here at home, supporting an economic fantasy of "energy independence" powered by domestic, low-cost energy sources (to which environmental concerns are ancillary).<br />
<br />
What brings this charade crashing down is the dissonance with how each of these sides deals with the issue of nuclear. If the latter camp <i>truly</i> cared about abundance, nuclear would plausibly be of co-equal priority - uranium resources are relatively abundant in the U.S., and most of the uranium it imports are from friendly countries like our neighbors to the north. Further, nuclear <i>is</i> relatively cheap - particularly once plants are built - and those plants can supply energy for entire <i>generations</i> at tiny marginal costs. Thus, if it was simply about energy <i>abundance</i>, one would expect more than simple tepid support - one should see more folks like Lamar Alexander exhorting the country to double our current fleet by building a hundred new nuclear reactors. <i>But they don't</i>. Instead we are given platitudes extolling the virtues of abundant natural gas and <i>coal - </i>not uranium.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, as to the former crowd that values minimizing environmental impacts, it is immaterial as to <i>what</i> backs up intermittent sources (i.e., it's the same resources in which they claim they are attempting to displace). If the plausible goal were to eliminate CO2 and air pollution as much as possible, one would think that nuclear, given its high capacity and availability, would be at the vanguard of the movement. And yet it is shockingly absent - instead, once again, natural gas and ephemeral promises of "clean coal" (which, in fairness, is probably more about a cynical electoral sop to coal-producing states than it is a serious policy proposal) take the fore. Constantly we hear from these same people theoretically devoted to the cause of creating a clean energy future about the virtue and necessity of natural gas as a "bridge" fuel - as if carbon-free nuclear energy simply did not exist. (Or as if natural gas did not pose a <a href="http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html">far more substantial risk</a> in terms of deaths per unit energy produced).<br />
<br />
What nuclear seems to lack here is the existence of a natural constituency Again, look at what a rational examination of the expressed interests of our two major constituencies above should theoretically produce - nuclear, by all accounts, should be a hands-down consensus winner. Yet instead it is relegated to scarcely a mention in high-profile debates.<br />
<br />
Again, it is far better for nuclear <i>not</i> to exist solely in the thrall of one ideological pole, given the ease at which it can be marginalized on a partisan basis. But perhaps the bigger issue now is that nuclear, enjoying a <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/03/support-for-nuclear-broad-but-shallow.html">broad but shallow public consensus</a>, finds itself politically homeless.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-68958561175878550452012-09-14T13:58:00.001-04:002012-09-15T09:01:31.642-04:00Mixing it up over MOX - a wrapup from Chattanooga<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o4sNtkxTn3o/UFNTx5_MmZI/AAAAAAAAGnw/j7CK5tIQClc/s1600/2012-09-11+17.29.06.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Crowd at the MOX hearing" border="0" height="240" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o4sNtkxTn3o/UFNTx5_MmZI/AAAAAAAAGnw/j7CK5tIQClc/s320/2012-09-11+17.29.06.jpg" title="A packed house in Chattanooga" width="320" /></a>Tuesday's meeting in Chattanooga over the draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) over potential plans by TVA to use MOX fuel fabricated from surplus weapons plutonium had no shortage of passion. The meeting drew a packed house of MOX supporters and professional anti-nuclear activists ("professional" in the sense that these individuals clearly make a career out of attending such hearings).<br />
<br />
Surprisingly absent however was any evidence of <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/09/wading-into-nuclear-zombie-horde.html">nuclear zombies</a>; while the opponents employed some degree of necromancy in their arguments, no "nuclear zombies" were spotted at the meeting. (To which I wryly observed during the meeting, "All that zombie defense training for nothing...")<br />
<br />
For those who missed it, I did <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/09/11/live-from-chatanooga-introductions/">a bit</a> of <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/09/11/intermission-blogging/">live-blogging</a> at the <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/">ANS Nuclear Cafe</a> as well as live-tweeting the meeting (as <a href="https://twitter.com/sskutnik">@sskutnik</a>, under the tag <a href="https://twitter.com/i/#!/search/?q=%23MOXchat">#MOXchat</a> - and <a href="https://twitter.com/i/#!/search/%23MOXsnark">#MOXsnark</a> as my snarkiness level progressively increased throughout the meeting...) Meredith Angwin of <a href="http://yesvy.blogspot.com/">Yes Vermont Yankee</a> was following the meeting via Twitter and <a href="http://yesvy.blogspot.com/2012/09/meeting-success-story-in-chattanooga.html#.UFNRKUJqv8s">has already posted her thoughts</a>; I've been a bit delayed up until now (such is the life of a professor...), but I wanted to get in my impressions from the meeting.<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-N4nPilffOw8/UFNTuivSVFI/AAAAAAAAGno/z_26nAuMahY/s1600/2012-09-11+16.23.05.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="UTK ANS students" border="0" height="224" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-N4nPilffOw8/UFNTuivSVFI/AAAAAAAAGno/z_26nAuMahY/s320/2012-09-11+16.23.05.jpg" title="Our photogenic cadre of students from UTK (and me)" width="320" /></a>
<br />
<h2>
Strong turnout</h2>
We had an extremely healthy contingent of students in attending, both from the University of Tennessee (where we had a little over 20 overall) as well as Chattanooga State's local ANS section (as seen in the bright blue and orange shirts in many pictures). A great deal of credit for this goes to Laura Scheele, the Outreach and Public Relations director for ANS national, who coordinated with both the UTK and Chattanooga State sections as well as organizing a welcome hospitality room (always popular with students!)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sHo-REp6kx4/UFNT05cPF_I/AAAAAAAAGn4/GWXROMmTZyg/s1600/2012-09-11+17.59.52.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sHo-REp6kx4/UFNT05cPF_I/AAAAAAAAGn4/GWXROMmTZyg/s200/2012-09-11+17.59.52.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
Also in attendance was Suzy Hobbs-Baker of <a href="http://popatomic.org/">PopAtomic Studios</a>, who put together some very cool pro-nuclear signs. (One anti-nuclear activist who wandered into the hospitality room as Suzy was putting together some of her signs before the meeting rolled her eyes and said, "You have got to be kidding." Whimsy, it would appear, is lost upon the opposition. Such a lack of whimsy of course did not stop her from helping herself to some cookies courtesy of ANS.)<br />
<br />
<br />
<h2>
No zombies, but zombie arguments</h2>
<div>
As I noted above, there was a surprising absence of zombies at the Chattanooga hearing; we speculated as to whether the budding thespians had caught wind of our plans to organize on the hearing and decided to head off to greener pastures (or at the very least, softer targets).</div>
<br />
In a rare, refreshing display of honesty, one housewife-cum-activist (this being pretty much her own self-description: "My husband pays the bills, which allows me to do this full-time"), while reading off of a notecard of pre-prepared talking points, admitted, "I don't really understand this, but I'm going to read it anyway..." There were numerous "technical" (speaking very generously) arguments of dubious merit pertaining to MOX fuel - they could be summarized essentially as follows:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>MOX fuel burns (thermally) hotter, so it's more dangerous</li>
<li>These reactors "weren't designed" for MOX fuel</li>
<li>MOX fuel is ill-understood and experimental</li>
<li>MOX fuel with weapons-grade plutonium behaves differently than reactor-grade plutonium</li>
<li>MOX fuel leads to much more rapid neutron embrittlement of reactor pressure vessels</li>
</ul>
<div>
Some of these arguments I've handled before, but let's go through them again. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Thermal output</h3>
<div>
<br />
As to the thermal output - indeed plutonium does release somewhat more energy than uranium upon fission. However, the reactors are being run at the same thermal output - which is controlled the same way we control uranium-only cores: with chemical shims (like soluble boron), burnable poison rods, and control rods - all of which keep the total temperature of the reactor the same as before by controlling the rate of fission.<br />
<br /></div>
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<h3>
Reactor physics of MOX fuel</h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
The next three arguments essential come under the same umbrella - the myth that MOX fuel is somehow new and ill-understood. MOX fuel itself has been used for decades around the world in countries that reprocess used nuclear fuel, so the idea that it's somehow ill-understood is clearly false on face. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Beyond this, many of the opponents arguments came from half-complete understandings of how reactors work; it was particularly apparent that they were being fed cherry-picked half-truths to convey a sense of technical credibility to their arguments. For example, opponents argued that MOX fuel makes the reactor more difficult to control. In a limited sense, this is true; plutonium has about 1/3 the fraction of delayed neutrons (~0.2%) as U-235 (~0.64%). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
[<b>Aside: </b>In reactor theory, neutrons come in two forms - "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delayed_neutron">delayed neutrons</a>," which come from fission products or decay products (on the order of a few milliseconds to a few minutes after fission), and "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prompt_neutron">prompt neutrons</a>," which are the neutrons released at fission. Reactors are typically run as "delayed critical" - meaning that the delayed neutrons are the component which keeps the chain reaction going; the reactor is in fact <i>subcritical</i> (not self-sustaining) from prompt neutrons alone. The existence of delayed neutrons is what allows for a reactor to be safely controlled, namely by allowing for smooth, easily controlled changes in reactor power.]</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
Here's the problem with the opponents' argument; nobody is proposing to run a full core solely upon plutonium fuel. Rather, the TVA proposal would, at a <i>maximum</i> be looking at a 40% core of MOX fuel, ramping up from an initial loading of around 4%. Further, there is of course <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/01/cultural-bias-and-nuclear.html">an ongoing trend with nuclear opponents</a>, that somehow there is a completely non-existence of an engineering discipline. A key issue to stress here is that before <i>any</i> fuel assembly is loaded into a reactor, an inordinate amount of engineering work is done to know just <i>how</i> the fuel will behave to ensure it will be done safely. No one is simply doing engineering by the seat of their pants, contrary to the beliefs of some.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
Once the argument that MOX fuel is somehow "experimental" is knocked down, opponents quickly come back with a new variant - that somehow plutonium of weapons-grade variety (i.e., with a Pu-239 content over 90%) behaves substantially differently than that of reactor grade origin (where Pu-239 is about 55-70%, with about 20-25% Pu-240).<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KYiEVtVx9Ks/UFNmO3LkgwI/AAAAAAAAGoY/nGytLDcPYdk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-09-14+at+1.14.57+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Pu composition by reactor type" border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KYiEVtVx9Ks/UFNmO3LkgwI/AAAAAAAAGoY/nGytLDcPYdk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-09-14+at+1.14.57+PM.png" title="Plutonium by reactor type; "reactor grade" for a typical LEU fuel burnup" /></a></div>
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With plutonium, odd-numbered species (Pu-239, Pu-241) are "fissile," meaning they will fission with thermal neutrons (i.e., the kind which exist in a light-water reactor). Even-numbered plutonium species will not; they typically absorb neutrons to become odd-numbered plutonium species (e.g., Pu-240 will become Pu-241), meaning these species have a net negative reactive worth (i.e., they parasitically absorb neutrons).<br />
<br />
However, once again - these are things which are well-understood from an engineering perspective; the amount of plutonium in the MOX rod is determined by how much "reactive worth" is necessary. One of the students who spoke (and was later quoted by the Times-Free Press) has actually studied this exact issue (differences between weapons-grade and reactor grade plutonium for reactor fuel) and found minimal differences in reactor behavior. In other words, this is most certainly <i>not</i> some "experimental" fuel never tried before - all of this is well-understood physics.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Everyone's a reactor engineer...</h3>
<br />
The same goes for whether reactors are "designed" for MOX fuel; reactors are designed to remove efficiently remove heat from fuel rods and contain radioactivity. Reactor <i>cores </i>are designed to distribute fuel assemblies such that the rate of fission (and subsequently reactor power) is as evenly distributed as possible, with minimal peaking. Thus, the argument that somehow reactors are not "designed" for MOX-loaded cores run at the <i>licensed and designed reactor power </i>is utter nonsense, based upon a total misunderstanding of how reactors are designed and operated.<br />
<br />
Finally, one of the most bizarre and self-contradictory arguments was the idea that MOX fuel will uniquely lead to accelerated materials issues with reactor pressure vessels - i.e., neutron embrittlement. Again, an argument based upon a half-truth. The average number of neutrons released in fission by plutonium is again higher than uranium (a quantity known as "nu-bar"; nu-bar for Pu-239 is about 2.98, compared to 2.6 for U-235, about a 15% difference). However, the actual quantity of interest - the neutron flux (i.e., the number of neutrons actually flying around in the reactor) is directly proportional to the rate of fission - itself proportional to the reactor power. In other words, if the reactor power is held constant, all other things being equal the neutron flux will also be <i>about the same</i>. (There are some minor differences here, getting deeper into the technical details, but the end result is that the net difference in neutron flux basically ends up being a wash.) In other words, the argument that somehow plutonium-based fuels will somehow uniquely lead to accelerated neutron embrittlement is utterly bogus - completely notwithstanding the fact that NRC regulations require regular sampling of reactor pressure vessel materials (a "coupon" is taken from the vessel itself and tested for properties of embrittlement).<br />
<br />
<h3>
...or an economist</h3>
<br />
Not surprisingly, many armchair economists were also present among the opponents, with several pointing out the fact that the disposal of surplus plutonium in MOX fuel costs more than vitrification and disposal in a geologic repository (in this case, likely <a href="http://www.wipp.energy.gov/">WIPP in New Mexico</a>) in glass logs. A response to this - repeatedly brought up by myself and others present is that fissioning the plutonium is the only way it can ultimately be permanently destroyed. (This perhaps <a href="http://www.wdef.com/mostpopular/story/TVA-Considers-Experimental-Fuel-Made-With-Weapons/l9qNwXyoKkuDjpdtVLvsVw.cspx">most brilliantly summarized by Dr. Howard Hall</a>, who noted that "as a chemist, the most difficult thing for me to do is to put an atom back together after it's been fissioned.") Opponents also neglect a few key issues as well - the first and most important of which is that we have a standing agreement with Russia to destroy this plutonium in MOX fuel, namely because of Russian concerns about future retrievability in glass log form. (While the plutonium is rendered far more inaccessible in glass log form compared to its original metal pit form, it is clearly not impossible even with present technology to recover; by contrast, plutonium fissioned in MOX fuel is both destroyed, with the remaining material both contaminated with "nuisance" species like Pu-240 and Pu-242 as well as being trapped in a form which would need to be processed, while being protected by a lethal radiation field.)<br />
<br />
Additionally neglected is the fact that the DOE has already made the decision to go the MOX route and has already invested considerable resources in making this happen, meaning any savings argument is moot; the meeting at this point involves TVA's decision to accept the MOX fuel for reactors. (Topical limitations did not stop MOX opponents from airing a laundry list of complaints against nuclear energy writ large, particularly with respect to TVA.) However, even assuming abandoning the MOX program was under consideration (neglecting technical concerns and focusing strictly upon the economic argument being presented), given the funds already committed to the MOX fabrication facility, we are well past the point where vitrification (a technically inferior solution) would even save money on the balance.<br />
<br />
Of course, economics was not always the strong suit of opponents; a particularly amusing moment of the evening was when one opponent began his speech indicating how he hadn't paid an electric bill in over two years thanks to his home solar panels, then proceeded to preface an argument against the relative economics of MOX by saying, "As a TVA ratepayer..." It was quite clear that the meaning of "ratepayer" wasn't quite understood.<br />
<br />
<h2>
The importance of being nice</h2>
<div>
One of the most surprising things to me about the overall tone of the meeting was the general air of <i>civility</i> in the affair. Perhaps my expectations had been set too low on the basis of some of the zombie theatrics of Greenpeace types at prior TVA hearings (not to mention some of the horror stories Meredith Angwin has reported in connection to Vermont Yankee meetings), but overall MOX proponents and opponents alike were polite and respectful of one another. (This did not prevent the odd condescending remark from the protestors - one of the more personally enraging ones went along the lines of, "I'm glad to see all the students here tonight - but we don't need cheerleaders for MOX here, we need solutions." As if the years of hard work students put into their degree programs is irrelevant.)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
One thing I stressed to students beforehand was the <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/08/28/the-search-for-nuclear-happiness/">sage advice I took to heart from Meredith</a>: <i>be nice</i>. (And if you can, bring friends.) More importantly, I tried to stress the importance of being courteous and respectful even in the face of opponents who at times took a hostile, dismissive, or even condescending tone. (At several occasions in the evening Angwin was referred to as our "patron saint" of pro-nuclear activism...) [<b>Edit: </b><a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/09/mixing-it-up-over-mox-wrapup-from.html?showComment=1347648638685#c7424956024766113456">Meredith notes</a> that her frequent co-blogger / co-activist Howard <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arimo; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; text-align: justify;">Shaffer</span> is even more active; I would happily amend to note the two as "co-patron saints" of nuclear activism...]</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
A particularly interesting facet of the meeting was in how one could readily identify MOX opponents before they even got to their arguments - solely by their tone of voice. In nearly every case, opponents would grow progressively louder as they spoke, some nearly shouting by the end (despite the presence of a microphone and room small enough that none of this was necessary).</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
That being said, each side respectfully allowed the other to speak - there were no disruptions or booing; generally speaking, there was even polite applause for each speaker despite whose side they represented. (An interesting finish to the story; when we wrapped up and headed out to dinner afterwards, the opponents ended up at the same restaurant, sitting at a table right next to us. While there was some mildly belligerent exchanges between one opponent and one of our students, generally speaking both sides were again polite and respectful to one another.)<br />
<br /></div>
<h2>
Showing up matters</h2>
Lest anyone doubt the impact of knowledgable people simply <i>showing up</i> at meetings like this, I offer the following exercise in compare & contrast: Take a look at the <a href="http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2012/sep/12/chattanooga-meeting-on-mox-fuel-draws-a-crowd/">coverage of the MOX hearing in Chattanooga</a> (attended by an overwhelming number of ANS local section members from the University of Tennessee and Chattanooga State) versus <a href="http://decaturdaily.com/stories/MOX-or-not-Govt-likes-weapons-fuel-public-doesnt,102677?content_source=&category_id=11&search_filter=&event_mode=&event_ts_from=&list_type=&order_by=&order_sort=&content_class=&sub_type=stories&town_id=">the hearing on Thursday in Decatur, Alabama</a> (near the Brown's Ferry reactor, one of the proposed TVA sites for burning MOX fuel). (For further contrast, have a look at the <a href="http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2012/sep/10/910-b1-hearing-set-on-mox-use-in-tva-plants/">before</a> and <a href="http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2012/sep/12/chattanooga-meeting-on-mox-fuel-draws-a-crowd/">after</a> reporting of the Chattanooga meeting as well).<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The distinction in coverage when knowledgable nuclear advocates are present could not be more clear; in their absence, a small caravan of nuclear opponents traveling from meeting to meeting are allowed to speak unopposed as the singular voice of "the public." (Take a look at the articles and see if you can't spot some repeated names, for example.) There is little question in the Decatur coverage whether a contingent of the public exists who supports the program (apparently, they don't) - instead, opponents have been allowed to freely carry the day, completely unchecked.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Without trying to belabor the point too much: <i><b>showing up matters</b></i>. Reporters have no technical basis to evaluate the questionable claims of nuclear opponents (which really, the MOX opponents unabashedly represented); nor do reporters have any reason to seek out the existence of an opposing view when it is absent from public forums such as these. By contrast, when knowledgable individuals show up to these meetings, particularly in large numbers, their presence simply cannot be ignored - even if their numbers may be underreported. (The Chattanooga Times-Free Press reporter indicated about a dozen students were present; by my count, we had about two dozen from the University of Tennessee alone in two vans, not even counting the over two dozen from Chattanooga State.)<br />
<br /></div>
<h2>
Final thoughts</h2>
<div>
Something to stress here in all of this - and again, something I made sure to emphasize with the students coming on their own time despite busy class schedules - is that in addition to the simple importance of speaking out at events like this (something I feel is an ethical obligation of nuclear professionals), one of the most important aspects here is to <i>have fun</i>. Outreach events like this can be stressful, especially with opponents ready to label students as simple shills or puppets of the "nuclear corporatocracy" to use one opponent's terms. Some of this came from having some fun with opponents' catchphrases - "Don't fall into the MOX pit!" and "Are you cheerleading or finding solutions here?" were repeated more than once in humorous fashion afterwards.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Events like this fulfill a vital part of the role of organizations like ANS to inform the public such that decisions are made on the basis of facts and not simply demagoguery, but that also doesn't mean that they can't also be a fun way for students and professionals to get together to share their passion for technology they see as vitally important for society's future.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-59660608956942577852012-09-10T12:59:00.001-04:002012-09-10T13:04:16.835-04:00Wading into the "nuclear zombie" hordeTomorrow evening, <a href="http://nnsa.energy.gov/aboutus/ouroperations/generalcounsel/nepaoverview/nepa/spdsupplementaleis">the NNSA will be hosting a public meeting</a> concerning its Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on the disposition of surplus weapons-grade plutonium (WGPu) as mixed-oxide ("MOX") fuel for consumption in power reactors.<br />
<br />
This is not a new policy - the decision to dispose of the surplus weapons material was put into place during negotiations with the Russians which took place during the Clinton Administration. The goal was quite simple: with the Cold War at an end, both countries had far greater stocks of weapons material than reasonably necessary for defense, and disposing of this material was determined to be a national security priority. In particular, both the U.S. and the Russians have agreed to dispose of 34 metric tons (about 75,000 pounds) of surplus bomb material.<br />
<br />
Such an agreement is similar in form to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatons_to_Megawatts_Program">"Megatons to Megawatts" program</a> now winding down, in which surplus highly-enriched uranium (HEU) formerly for weapons was down-blended into low-enriched uranium (LEU) for reactor fuel and permanently destroyed.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sGXJ9DJTZi8/UE4OmtNbVxI/AAAAAAAAGmo/ZltyRMNmm-Y/s1600/scrambled-eggs-su-1017334-l.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Scrambled eggs / plutonium" border="0" height="200" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sGXJ9DJTZi8/UE4OmtNbVxI/AAAAAAAAGmo/ZltyRMNmm-Y/s200/scrambled-eggs-su-1017334-l.jpg" title="Now just think of it as plutonium's isotopic vector, and try not to think about eating it." width="200" /></a></div>
<a href="http://nnsa.energy.gov/sites/default/files/nnsa/07-12-inlinefiles/Summary.pdf">The NNSA proposal</a> works along the same lines - take what is currently a weapons-grade asset and blend it down (in this case, convert the plutonium into an oxide powder and blend it to about a 4% mixture with uranium) and then burn it in reactors. The advantage to this approach is relatively straightforward: by burning the plutonium in reactors, the plutonium isotopic makeup becomes "scrambled" - basically rendering it useless for weapons, even if it were ever recovered from the spent MOX fuel. Further, the irradiated fuel adds a second physical barrier to theft and diversion - namely that now this material is now trapped inside a highly radioactive fuel rod. (The treaty agreement likewise forbids the two countries from reprocessing the spent MOX fuel for several decades.)<br />
<br />
So who would object to what sounds like a sensible application of the "swords to plowshares" concept?<br />
<br />
<b><i>Zombies.</i></b><br />
<b><i><br /></i></b>
Specifically, "nuclear zombies." Greenpeace and other anti-nuclear activists, in continuing their slow decline into generalized misanthropy over any stated concern for the environment, have come out in force against the NNSA proposal, going so far as to set up shop in Chattanooga. Their particular M.O. in this has been a series of "nuclear zombie" theatrics - starting with a TVA hearing on completing the mothballed reactor project at Watts Barr Unit 2. The anti-nuclear critics leaped upon the construction restart as reviving a "zombie" reactor build (once dead, now undead - yes, clever there folks) and have been working with the meme since.<br />
<br />
In keeping with the theme, I'll be leading a contingent of trained nuclear <strike>engineering students</strike> <b>zombie hunters</b> from the University of Tennessee down to the public meeting tomorrow both as a show of support and more importantly as a resource in trained experts who can sort the facts from the theatrics.<br />
<br />
As always though with zombies, it's important to remember the most important rule of dealing with zombies: Always remember the double-tap. As we prepare for the charge into the zombie horde, it's thus useful to put down a few of the "living dead" arguments out there which seemingly seem to lumber on from beyond the grave. As a good companion piece, I also highly recommend Dan Yurman's <a href="http://djysrv.blogspot.com/2012/09/calling-out-red-herrings-about-mox-fuel.html">full frontal assault on the zombie horde.</a><br />
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<h2>
Zombie argument #1: MOX fuel is unsafe</h2>
Several countries, including France and Japan, already use MOX fuel in their reactors. This plutonium comes from recycling the plutonium that is built up in uranium fuel as reactors are operated. (Thus, to emphasize: plutonium in reactors is <i>not</i> a foreign concept - in the course of regular operations, plutonium is built up and burned within the fuel. In fact, near the end of a fuel bundle's lifetime, much of the energy produced from fission comes from the fissioning of <i>plutonium</i> itself, in addition to the depleting fissile uranium in the fuel).<br />
<br />
Plutonium fuel <i>does</i> burn a bit "hotter" (fission releases a nominally larger amount of energy for plutonium compared to uranium), but as Yurman points out in the above article, this is relatively similar to how a wood-burning stove works. Certain woods burn hotter (think hardwoods); but control of the reactor power and temperature is governed by many devices beyond the fuel, including burnable poisons and control rods which regulate the reaction rate. The goal of MOX fuel is essentially to use it as a replacement for ordinary uranium fuel - meaning the reactors are to run at the same power level as before. This is a well-understood concept.<br />
<br />
Further, the MOX fuel would not compose more than a fraction of the core loading. Yurman points out that TVA's initial plan (if they decide to participate in the MOX fuel program) would likely involve starting out with a loading of about 8 assemblies in the reactor; pressurized water reactors typically will have around 193 assemblies, meaning MOX will start off making up around 4% of the core, with an eventual ramp-up to around 40%.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Zombie argument #2: MOX is an inferior way to dispose of plutonium</h2>
Of the more sophisticated "zombie arguments out there, one that seems to arise again and again is the idea that disposing of plutonium in MOX fuel - be it from civilian reprocessing or from disposal of surplus weapons materials - is an inefficient and expensive way to deal with the problem. Instead, they say, we should dispose of the material in glass logs ("vitrification") and then bury the glass logs in a deep geologic repository. Such approach has been <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v485/n7397/full/485167a.html">vocally promoted</a> by the now-current chairwoman of the NRC, Dr. Allison MacFarlane. (Have the zombies gotten to her too, do you suppose?)<br />
<br />
In particular, some critics have pointed out the formerly proposed "two track" approach first sketched out by scientists and engineers with the Department of Energy at Savannah River, where the conversion of weapons material will take place. There are of course two problems with this - the first being that <a href="http://www.nucleartownhall.com/blog/william-tucker-mox-on-the-witness-tuesday-stand-in-chattanooga">this approach was originally proposed because of identified problems</a> in handling about 9 metric tons of the plutonium, as it was contaminated and deemed potentially unsuitable. (The remaining 25 metric tons were to be converted into MOX). However, as those problems were overcome, the decision was made to proceed exclusively on the MOX track, thus saving money by not creating two separate facilities.<br />
<br />
<br />
From a strictly technical standpoint, disposal of surplus plutonium in MOX fuel is the preferred pathway of <a href="http://www.new.ans.org/pi/ps/docs/ps47-bi.pdf">numerous technical and scientific organizations</a>, including the National Academy of Sciences, the American Nuclear Society, as well as numerous academic organizations, including the Harvard Project on Managing the Atom. (It's rare when I agree with the last party, so you know there's something going on when that one happens).<br />
<br />
<br />
Second, and perhaps more important, is the fact that there is significant diplomatic pressure from the Russians to convert and burn the material as MOX fuel rather than to vitrify it, as they are concerned that the vitrified material encased in glass logs may one day be recoverable. By contrast, once the MOX fuel has been irradiated, not only is the material far more difficult to handle, but the plutonium content itself becomes contaminated with "unfavorable" species of plutonium which render the material unusable for weapons use. Thus, the MOX route represents a more permanent disposal pathway.<br />
<br />
Finally, a factor which should not be neglected, is that MOX fuel represents a viable way to extract a useful resource - energy - out of what was formerly simply an implement of mass destruction. One can quibble that the economic costs of the MOX route do not necessarily outweigh the economic value of the electricity produced, but regardless the material would have to be converted into a form suitable for disposal - be it for conversion into glass logs or into reactor fuel. In this regard, it is useful to look at this from a marginal cost perspective - i.e., the benefit of electricity should not be weighed against the full cost of the MOX fabrication facility but against the marginal difference in the cost of the MOX facility versus vitrification. In this regard, MOX begins to look like a much better deal, even if it doesn't break even. (Lacking for immediately accessible numbers, this is difficult to quantify).<br />
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<h2>
Zombie Argument #3: Nobody wants MOX</h2>
A relatively specious argument which can be relatively swiftly put down. First, TVA <i>has</i> expressed interest - hence why these hearings are taking place in the first place. In addition to TVA, <a href="http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/2009/06/10/met_527123.shtml">Duke Energy has also expressed potential interest</a> in purchasing the converted MOX fuel from the Savannah River Site.<br />
<br />
Most of the reason U.S. utilities have been reluctant to purchase MOX fuel for reactors up until now comes down to cost - pound for pound, MOX fuel does cost more, and utilities receive no credit back toward fees paid into the nuclear waste fund for any net reduction in waste sent to an (eventual) repository. (The Megatons to Megawatts program, by contrast, produced a fuel which is the same exact form as used in current reactors - hence, it was cheaper and easier).<br />
<br />
However, because the NNSA plan is explicitly designed to dispose of surplus weapons material, it is being done with a subsidy to offset this cost. (Again, to emphasize: what is being paid for is to ensure a final disposition of the plutonium.)<br />
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<h2>
Closing thoughts</h2>
Like with ordinary zombies, I'm not even really sure we can expect the level of sophisticated arguments that I've deconstructed above so much as a slow grope for brains. (Yes, cheap shot, I know.) I say this only because I remain unconvinced that "nuclear zombie" demonstrations, which Greenpeace and other anti-nuclear organizations have invested considerable resources into, have anything to do with setting the tone for well-reasoned, thoughtful consideration of alternatives.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--Q408yF_LDY/UE4KsMWeF6I/AAAAAAAAGmQ/gQOsMafuWRc/s1600/bc34rarmyofdarkness2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Ash with his boomstick" border="0" height="291" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--Q408yF_LDY/UE4KsMWeF6I/AAAAAAAAGmQ/gQOsMafuWRc/s400/bc34rarmyofdarkness2.jpg" title="...but it is an effective way of dealing with zombies, nuclear or no." width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px; text-align: center;">If you need to find me at the meeting tomorrow, I'll be <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_of_Darkness">the guy with the<br />boomstick</a>. (<b>Note:</b> No one's bringing any weapons. Please don't sue.)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Regardless, I will be there tomorrow, braving the zombie horde. If you're anywhere around the Chattanooga area tomorrow, do consider joining us. One of the key points I have continued to emphasize with my students is the need to simply <i>show up</i> - not only such that groups interested more in theatrics than in debate don't simply carry the day by default, but also such that we can be there as a resource - answering questions from the non-zombified public and putting to (final) rest some of the more putrified misinformation.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://nnsa.energy.gov/aboutus/ouroperations/generalcounsel/nepaoverview/nepa/spdsupplementaleis">The hearing</a> will be at the <a href="http://chattanoogaconventioncenter.org/">Chattanooga Convention Center</a> (1150 Carter Street<br />
Chattanooga, TN). Open house starts at 5:30, followed by a technical presentation by the NNSA at 6:30 and public comments following up 8:00.<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-22648266583030320472012-09-04T08:24:00.000-04:002012-09-04T16:27:16.564-04:00A cost-free way to open up nuclear investmentLate last week, the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board (ASLB)<a href="http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Ownership_issues_block_Unistar_licence-3108124.html"> rejected</a> a <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-08-30/news/bs-md-calvert-cliffs-denied-20120830_1_edf-unistar-nuclear-energy-calvert-cliffs">license application</a> for the proposed Calvert Cliffs Unit 3 (an AREVA EPR) build in Southern Maryland. The reason? It was against the law.<br />
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Specifically, when the build was originally proposed, it was to be a 50/50 joint ownership stake by Constellation Energy and Electricite de France (EDF, the state-owned French utility giant). However, in November 2010, Constellation sold its 50% stake in the reactor to EDF, making it the sole potential owner of the unit.<br />
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According to Federal law (<a href="http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/cfr/part050/part050-0038.html">10 CFR 50.38</a>), foreign investors are ineligible to apply for a license to operate a nuclear facility in the U.S. While Unistar was still the nominal applicant, the ASLB determined that the venture was solely owned by EDF and thus EDF was the effective applicant - and thus, ineligible. (The lawsuit, incidentally, <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/calvert-cliffs-3-reactor-license-denied-nrc-licensing-board-rules-in-favor-of-intervenors-says-atomic-energy-act-2012-08-30">was filed by the anti-nuclear activist group NIRS</a>, indicating that anti-nuclear groups will not hesitate use every tool at their disposal to block or shut down any nuclear power facility - and to hell with the cost to the environment as a result.)<br />
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If this seems entirely backward in a world of global production and investment, that's because it is. The current regulation is an artifact of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_Energy_Act_of_1954">Atomic Energy Act of 1954</a>, which first authorized private ownership of nuclear facilities. (Prior to this - per the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_Energy_Act_of_1946">Atomic Energy Act of 1946</a>, all nuclear technology was considered a state secret, during the short time in which the U.S. enjoyed a monopoly on the technology.)<br />
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Is there any real compelling reason for restrictions on foreign ownership and investment in nuclear facilities to exist at a time when the U.S. holding a monopoly on the technology has long since passed? Issues of safety here of course are irrelevant - the facilities would be licensed and regulated by the NRC, just as any other nuclear facility is now. About the only salient objection is the political one - i.e., the implications of a foreign entity maintaining controlling ownership in key infrastructure. (Although it's hard to see anyone getting particularly upset about the reverse - U.S. entities owning a controlling stake in infrastructure in other nations.)<br />
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For those who have a bit of a longer memory, the controversy should ring familiar - i.e., it's the same arguments which were played out during the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubai_Ports_World_controversy">Dubai Ports World deal</a>, in which DP World, a UAE-based company, would take over management contracts for six U.S. ports already under foreign management.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JwWFpxQkhT0/UEZjy7WBikI/AAAAAAAAGl4/68zpOlbc3c8/s1600/fry_money.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="EDF as Philip J. Fry: Shut up and take my money" border="0" height="200" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JwWFpxQkhT0/UEZjy7WBikI/AAAAAAAAGl4/68zpOlbc3c8/s320/fry_money.jpg" title="EDF's proposal to the NRC" width="320" /></a></div>
Meanwhile, an issue to consider is the fact that bringing together capital to complete a construction bid like Calvert Cliffs 3 is no mean feat (particularly in an economy where investors seem all too skittish about long-term investments in energy infrastructure). Given the difficulty then, it seems positively insane for any political leadership to turn away large investments in long-term energy infrastructure (especially non-emitting baseload like nuclear, which has a long expected operational lifetime).<br />
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Setting aside the politics of free trade for a moment, if Republicans have any seriousness behind their twin rhetoric of advocating for expanded use of nuclear energy and in relying on the free market to sort out our energy mix, then this one should be a no-brainer: let companies like EDF put up the investment and apply for a license. The same is true for Democrats as well - if they're serious about both jobs (<a href="http://www.nei.org/keyissues/newnuclearplants/economicbenefitsofnewnuclearplants/">nuclear construction has them in spades</a>) and especially about creating clean energy sources for the future, investors like EDF should be welcomed with open arms, not turned away at the door.<br />
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Again, the best part of this? <i>This costs nothing</i>. Investors like EDF wish to <i>voluntarily</i> invest their money in a vital public good (carbon-free electricity) - all that needs to happen is for leaders to be willing to say, <i>"Oui."</i>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-32978900103633653172012-09-01T10:05:00.004-04:002012-09-06T18:49:34.246-04:00Does declining gas exploration indicate a price "explosion" or just a new equilibrium?A few interesting points came out of the follow-up discussion on my <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/08/wishful-thinking-on-natural-gas-prices.html">prior post</a>, in which I argued that, <i>contra </i><a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/08/look-out-natural-gas-prices-in-north-america-will-skyrocket-by-end-of-2014.html">Rod Adams</a>, natural gas prices are not set to "explode" anytime soon.<br />
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<a href="http://yesvy.blogspot.com/">Meredith Angwin of Yes Vermont Yankee</a> <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/08/wishful-thinking-on-natural-gas-prices.html?showComment=1346446560539#c2905300137847187001">made a keen observation</a> that over the last year, the <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertwg_xwc0_nus_cM.htm">number of new natural gas exploratory wells is collapsing</a>. Why is this happening? Namely because of the cratering current price of natural gas.</div>
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In fact, a very interesting thing appears to be happening right now with shale / unconventional natural gas recovery boom - the industry appears to be a victim of its own success. Or rather, drillers have been sinking new wells without regard to price (again, see the sharp boom in new wells up until about October 2008, where new wells peaked). As a result, proven reserves have fairly substantially increased - and in particular, known reserves of <a href="http://www.naturalgas.org/overview/background.asp">"dry gas"</a> (i.e., nearly pure methane, the most commercially valuable component of natural gas) have in fact "exploded" - nearly <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngr11nus_1a.htm">doubling over the last decade</a>.</div>
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Meanwhile, neglected in these considerations is that shale fracturing wells in particular <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertwg_xwwn_nus_mdwa.htm">aren't cheap to drill</a>; as a result, anomalously low natural gas prices means that <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2012/08/06/low-gas-prices-wipe-out-giant-chunk-of-chesapeake-reserves/">some drillers have been losing their shirts</a> over the same much-publicized "boom" in natural gas production. </div>
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This is where we get back to the discussion of natural gas prices overall. What appears to be occurring is a basic disequilibrium; a disruptive event in supply (i.e., introduction of large new resources) prompted a rush to invest/explore this resource, which in turn created a significant rise in supply over the short term, rapidly dropping the price to a point where the <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/ycharts/2012/03/15/natural-gas-glut-killing-drillers-and-enriching-fertilizer-companies/">market price is below the profitable price of recovery</a>.</div>
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Thus, as far as exploration goes, we seem to be observing is basic mineral economics: exploration follows price. When price drops (i.e., we had an over-abundance of exploration), exploration drops. As prices rise to the point where new wells achieve a net profit, it's a relatively safe prediction that exploration will again begin to rise. What is essence is developing are two constraints on natural gas price - a "floor" on prices (i.e., below which it is not economically viable to recover gas from new wells) and a "ceiling" (driven by the large increases in known supply). My colleague Alan observed this some time ago when he <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/02/end-of-natural-gas-price-volatility.html">speculated as to whether we are seeing the end of natural gas price volatility</a> (at least for now).</div>
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So, will natural gas prices rise? Probably - but given the very large amounts of known reserves, price acts as a strong signal to start drilling again. Given the large known new reserves, this will inherently push back against any significant rises in price - as it gets more profitable to drill new wells, new producers will inevitably get into the game, particularly because <i>we know the gas is out there</i>. The real question is, "At what price does this happen?" I'm not an expert in gas recovery, so I don't know - but like Meredith, I suspect it will be around $5-6/MMBtu. A columnist at Forbes <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardfinger/2012/07/22/were-headed-to-8-00-natural-gas/">suggests it may be $8/MMBtu</a>. Either way, I remain deeply suspicious at this point of the idea of prices "exploding" (and hence my bet with Rod) - what instead appears to be happening is the search for a new price equilibrium.</div>
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A final addendum - as <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/08/wishful-thinking-on-natural-gas-prices.html?showComment=1346460048956#c2337250729048397894">commenter Robert pointed out</a>, all of this really applies to the U.S. - something worth emphasizing. Other places, where either fossil resources like coal and natural gas are less abundant (i.e., South Korea and Japan) or where there these resources are more valuable as exports (i.e., UAE) have a completely different picture for the relative economics of nuclear versus natural gas. In particular, it is likely far <i>easier</i> to make the economic case for nuclear in these places - meaning even if new builds for nuclear may be slowed or delayed in the U.S. for the time being, the same is <i>not</i> true abroad.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-8352790994193883672012-08-31T14:09:00.000-04:002012-09-01T13:35:41.768-04:00Wishful thinking on natural gas pricesRod Adams of <a href="http://www.atomicinsights.com/">Atomic Insights</a> has <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/08/look-out-natural-gas-prices-in-north-america-will-skyrocket-by-end-of-2014.html">posted </a>a <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/08/don-hoffman-is-one-of-my-heroes.html">string</a> of <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/08/fission-fans-should-unite-target-of-interest-is-fossil-fuel-market-share.html">arguments</a> in the general thread that <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/08/where-is-the-huge-increase-in-natural-gas-supply.html">natural gas prices are set to explode</a> - or at least, precipitously increase - and that further, the current historic lows in natural gas prices are a mirage, one carefully put into place by gas producers to squeeze out competition, particularly in the electricity sector. In his latest post, <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/08/where-is-the-huge-increase-in-natural-gas-supply.html">"Where is the huge increase in US natural gas supply?" </a>Rod points to EIA data indicating that the "flood" of new natural gas is anything but.<br />
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There's just a small problem in this assertion - the data doesn't support Rod's claims. And I say this as someone who obviously would <i>like</i> this to be true. Low natural gas prices have largely put the brakes on new nuclear construction - the latest casualty being <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/utilities-exelon-texas-idUKL2E8JS9WB20120828">Exelon's planned Victoria unit in Texas</a>. Obviously, <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/11/is-deregulation-really-problem-for-new.html">Exelon has made its position known</a> on whether it will be investing in new nuclear units in an environment where natural gas is currently cheap (it won't), so this comes as a surprise to no one. In fact, the <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/11/fun-with-energy-generation-statistics.html">overwhelming majority of new electric generation capacity</a> in the U.S. over the last decade has been natural gas.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Gk6isGg0qdo/UEDzpTTvn_I/AAAAAAAAGkA/umFHkaLiJks/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="132" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Gk6isGg0qdo/UEDzpTTvn_I/AAAAAAAAGkA/umFHkaLiJks/s320/chart.png" width="320" /></a>Rod makes the claim that the cause of currently low natural gas prices is less due to new supply and more due to slumping demand for energy given the recession. As evidence of this, he points to <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2m.htm">this chart from the EIA</a>, indicating gross withdrawals of natural gas at U.S. wells.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DGOgusNcJ5k/UED0h21lSdI/AAAAAAAAGkI/Qbd3H2Z0ihc/s1600/chart+(1).png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="132" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DGOgusNcJ5k/UED0h21lSdI/AAAAAAAAGkI/Qbd3H2Z0ihc/s320/chart+(1).png" width="320" /></a>Rod's argument is that the new supply hitting the market isn't exactly overwhelming - and therefore, when demand picks up, so will prices. The data Rod is using to justify this reasoning is withdrawals at the wellhead - which indicates how much supply is hitting the market. The trend is easier to see on the <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2A.htm">annual withdrawals basis</a>.<br />
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While we don't see an "explosion" in terms of orders of magnitude difference, looking at the data, it's clear that natural gas withdrawals have increased by over 20% since 2005 - hardly insignificant.<br />
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But frankly, this is the wrong metric to look at the begin with. If we want to know the real story with natural gas supply, we need to look at <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proven_reserves">proven reserves</a> (i.e., the amount of natural gas we have reasonable certainty of economical recovery from the ground). Again, <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rl2r01nus_1a.htm">going to the EIA data</a>, we see the same trend; since 2003, proven U.S. reserves have increased from about 7.5 billion barrels to 9.3 billion in 2011 - a 24% increase. Again, while not mind-blowing, <i>this is not insignificant.</i><br />
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However, we're still missing one last piece of the puzzle - natural gas consumption. This of course is the key to Rod's argument - we've demonstrated that supply has increased, although perhaps not "exploded." But Rod claims that much of what has contributed to temporarily low gas prices has been slumping demand due to a down economy. We can easily evaluate this claim by looking at total consumption data.<br />
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On a <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2M.htm">month-by-month basis</a>, peak consumption (in January) did decline from 2011 to 2012 - by about 5%. This may be partly due to a sluggish economy, but probably more so due to an anomalously warm winter. To get a better feel for total consumption trends however, one should look at the annualized data, "smoothing out" some of these peaks.<br />
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<span style="text-align: center;">On an <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2A.htm">annual basis</a>, natural gas consumption has been rising - since 2003, net consumption has increased by about 10%. Looking at just the last six years (from a minimum in 2006), gas consumption has grown at a maximum of about 14%.</span></div>
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So now to recap - natural gas <i>supply</i>, in terms of proven reserves, has increased by about 24%, while natural gas <i>consumption</i> has only grown by 14%. Basic economics allows one to predict what happens to price under this circumstance - supply has, in the short-term, outstripped demand. However, while demand has dropped off a little in 2012, supply has been outstripping demand for the last 10 years - this is not a temporary phenomenon.</div>
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Now, one can make the argument that eventually demand will catch up with supply - in which case, prices certainly will begin to creep back up. But there is no evidence that proven reserves themselves are declining, which means predictions of the imminent explosion of natural gas prices have, unfortunately for nuclear, little basis in reality.</div>
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This gets me back to a recurring point I make many, many times - for nuclear to be viable, reducing capital costs and eliminating the risk premium must be the absolute first priority. (A second, equally important priority would be in establishing a clear price signal on carbon dioxide - very much contrary to the giveaway to natural gas producers which the <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/03/epas-coal-mandate-opportunity-for.html">EPA's current target amounts to.</a>) </div>
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Expecting a <i>deus ex machina</i> spike in natural gas prices to save new nuclear construction simply isn't going to happen in the short-run. It may be true in the long-run - a decade or more away. And certainly any utility looking to hedge against future price volatility in fuels would be smart to invest in nuclear. But there isn't any evidence that a sudden increase in gas prices will come to nuclear's rescue in the near-term, and this is important - not because I don't want to see new nuclear get built, but because nuclear advocates need to be clear-eyed about the reality confronting them. Self-deluding arguments might feel good in the short-run, but they do little to see to it that new nuclear plants actually get built.<br />
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<b>Update: </b>In the <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/05/the_bettors_oat.html">spirit of Bryan Caplan</a> of <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/">Econlog</a>, <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/08/where-is-the-huge-increase-in-natural-gas-supply.html#comment-25563">Rod has made a wager ($50) with me</a>; that there will be at least one month by end of 2014 in which <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdd.htm">natural gas prices at Henry Hub</a> will exceed $10/MMBtu (Rod is betting that they will exceed this). I have to say, I respect anyone willing to put their money where their mouth is. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I will be.<br />
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For reference, here's the <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9190us3M.htm">historical EIA data on natural gas prices</a>. (<b>For clarification: </b><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_thermal_unit">1 MMBtu = 1000 Btu</a>; 1000 cubic feet of natural gas <a href="http://www.onlineconversion.com/forum/forum_1038451235.htm">contains about 1020 Btu</a>, or 1.02 MMBtu)<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-25206860709449024862012-08-21T18:11:00.000-04:002012-08-21T18:11:41.011-04:00Rolling Over the OdometerWe just got our 100,000th pageview today.<br />
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It's been a wild ride over the last year and a half, where this blog began with a baptism by fire in the early days of the Fukushima crisis with our first post, "<a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/03/fukushima-in-laymans-terms.html">Fukushima in Layman's Terms</a>", where our first and foremost goal was to attempt to as much as possible distill the events in Japan accurately in a way the general public could understand. I'd like to believe we've made some impact on that goal - and at the very least, we're doing something right.<br />
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Thank you to all of our loyal readers!
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-2884568434493795602012-08-20T19:14:00.000-04:002012-08-21T10:40:00.137-04:00Cultural signaling and energyAn image that struck me recently and has stayed with me since was a license plate. Specifically, a jet-black Kentucky license plate, emblazoned "Friends of Coal."<br />
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The first thing that ran through my mind was, "Who in their right mind proudly trumpets supporting <i>that</i>?" It struck me as about the same contrarian attitude as waving around a Confederate flag (or its more common contemporary, sporting a Confederate flag bumper sticker; which again, <i>some people actually do that</i>). These are things that, to an uninitiated Midwestern exile like myself, should seem <i>embarrassing</i> to display, to say the least.<br />
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Yet, oddly enough, much like the confederate flag paraphernalia one encounters with depressing frequency south of the Mason-Dixon line, <a href="http://mvl.ky.gov/MVLWeb/PIServlet?PlateId=7P&PersonalizeIndicator=Y">Kentucky's "Friends of Coal" license plate</a> is the <a href="http://www.kyforward.com/our-government/2011/07/08/state%E2%80%99s-most-popular-specialty-license-plate-is-friends-of-coal-followed-by-veterans-uk/">state's most popular custom license plate design</a> - more popular than veteran's plates and those supporting the University of Kentucky. As it turns out, several other states in the area have their own variations, including <a href="http://www.dmv.virginia.gov/exec/vehicle/splates/info.asp?idnm=FOC">Virginia</a> and <a href="http://www.transportation.wv.gov/dmv/Forms/DMVLicensePlateApps/DMV-54-FC_Friends-ofCoal-License-Plate.pdf">West Virginia</a>.<br />
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Obviously, coal is a major economic player in Appalachia, so strong support is to be expected. But the image in my mind started making me think about a broader issue in energy politics, and perhaps why it seems why so often it seems like there are two sides talking past one another (where, incidentally, nuclear tends to be neglected in the crossfire). Specifically, a part of me wonders if what one sees in trends of public support for various energy sources has to do with the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signalling_(economics)">economic phenomenon of "signaling" behavior</a>.<br />
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I've of course speculated about how <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/01/cultural-bias-and-nuclear.html">cultural perceptions</a> might <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/04/cultural-cognition-of-risk-and.html">play a role</a> in public opinion over energy sources numerous times before, but what struck me here was whether support for energy sources - and specifically, some of the <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/03/support-for-nuclear-broad-but-shallow.html">most stark divides that manifest</a> - are perhaps deeper expressions of the cultural and aspirational values of the proponents, trumping factors including economics and environmental considerations (as well as <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/01/interminable-innumeracy-renewables.html">basic issues of numeracy</a>).<br />
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To back up a bit - in economics parlance, "signaling" is usually used as a way which people convey information which can't always be directly inferred or observed. Signaling can exist both in the banal, uncontroversial sense - wearing a suit and tie signals conformity, particular conformity to societal expectations of professional behavior - to somewhat more contested areas (such as <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/economics_of_education/">whether higher education acts as a signal</a> to employers as to characteristics including intelligence, diligence, or again, conformity).<br />
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Thus, my hypothesis - I am left to wonder if strong, highly polarized opinions on energy sources - particularly on divides such as coal (and to a lesser degree, natural gas) as well as wind and solar don't perhaps serve as signaling "stand-ins" for statements of individual values and cultural affinity.<br />
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In particular, the coal industry has capitalized on this in a particularly effective way, with their <a href="http://www.americaspower.org/" rel="nofollow">"America's power" re-branding</a>, and in particular attempting to link coal exclusively to the idea of low-cost, reliable energy generation (again, despite the fact that the levelized costs of nuclear, with its capital costs folded in, <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm">are not wildly out of line with coal</a>, particularly if carbon capture and sequestration is a mandated component.) Coal is, in effect, a signal of working-class values, and in particular an expression of solidarity with the working-class communities typically associated with coal-mining.<br />
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In a less regionally confined sense, one has to wonder whether some of the <span id="goog_1397431459"></span><a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/06/is-there-a-war-on-fossil-fuels-going-on-will-it-reduce-fossil-fuel-consumption.html">pushback from the right</a><span id="goog_1397431460"></span> over President Obama's "War on Fossil Fuels" also has more to do with outward expressions of cultural affiliation than it does practical concerns over energy. (Nevermind that <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/03/epas-coal-mandate-opportunity-for.html">favoring one fossil source over another</a> hardly consistutes a "war" on fossil fuels). Consider if you will how often right-wing pundits complain about how curtailing fossil fuel use for electricity would spike energy prices - again, as if nuclear energy weren't supplying a fifth of our electricity at the <a href="http://www.blogger.com/"><span id="goog_1397431468"></span>lowest marginal cost of baseload production next to hydro<span id="goog_1397431469"></span></a>.<br />
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I can't help but feel like the effect is intentional - although perhaps not for the reasons folks like <a href="http://www.atomicinsights.com/">Rod Adams</a> might assert (i.e., no, this is not a fossil-fueled conspiracy). Instead, look to the numbers - while <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/04/minding-partisan-gap-partisan-divisions.html">support for nuclear energy is strong among self-identified Republicans</a>, it trails far behind support for exploration of new fossil sources. Ultimately, one has to wonder if such public rending of garments pertains more to a cultural push-back response - rallying around fossil sources because of perceptions of <i>the other</i> - and less about actual, considered evaluation of economic and environmental trade-offs of different energy sources.<br />
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Contrast this with renewables - support for renewables is much like recycling - a token expression of environmental concern which can be done for minimal required effort. It is, in essence, expressing support for the environment without actually requiring any kind of substantial commitment from the individual. Considerations such as reliability of supply, economics, or even sheer scale are immaterial - support for renewables is, in essence, "green cred." Among the more radicalized, <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/03/conversation-with-an-anti-society-antinuclear-activist.html">the inherent limitations of renewables are even considered a feature, not a bug</a> - the limited capacity and availability of renewables are an exhortation to consume less, and ultimately to de-industrialize. In either case, support for renewables is less about the practical reality of the enormous challenge in powering an industrial society at the whims of nature and more about the value expression (or, as it were, <i>aspiration</i>) that it entails.<br />
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This process playing out prominently on the campaign trail right now. In Iowa, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/obama-to-hit-romney-on-wind-energy-in-iowa/">President Obama blasted Mitt Romney</a> for his support of allowing a wind power production tax credit to expire. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney and his supporters have been slugging back, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57492864-503544/romney-goes-on-offensive-on-coal-in-ohio/">contending that Obama has been waging a "war on coal."</a> (Note as well the targeted blue-collar audience.)<br />
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One can easily see where this one is going. Orphaned from any such discussions is nuclear; something at least now (mercifully) given tepid support by both sides, if only because excluding nuclear from energy discussions on the grounds of both environmental and economics grounds is inherently a politically self-marginalizing position, even if it <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/01/cultural-bias-and-nuclear.html">doesn't seem to command strong feelings</a> among most.<br />
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So what <i>does</i> support for nuclear energy signal, if you will (and likewise, its opposition)? I would hypothesize that the dividing line for nuclear turns on issues of technological optimism and energy abundance. A common thread I have observed among many nuclear professionals and advocates is a belief that the technology can consistently be made cheaper, more abundant, and ever safer. In particular among these people - myself included - is a belief in the imperative of energy abundance (this in fact was <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/06/why-i-became-nuclear-engineer.html">part of the reason I became a nuclear engineer</a>). By contrast, nuclear opponents are frequently (although not always) in the opposite role - sometimes technological pessimists and with a shocking frequency advocates of energy <i>austerity - </i>believing that the answer always is to consume <i>less</i> (despite the unmistakable positive correlations between prosperity and energy consumption, namely due to what energy <i>enables</i> us to do in modern society).<br />
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I remark that nuclear opponents are not <i>always</i> technological pessimists, namely because one occasionally encounters the odd nuclear opponent with delusional beliefs about the capability of renewables - although almost universally they fall back to the position of energy austerity when the limitations of renewable sources are brought up.<br />
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What do you think? Is energy advocacy a marker for more deeply-held cultural values? And if so, what <i>does</i> a strong preference for nuclear indicate?<br />
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<b><i>Aside:</i></b> On a personal note, I hope to be back to more regular blogging soon; this month I started out as a new faculty in the <a href="http://www.engr.utk.edu/nuclear/">Nuclear Engineering department</a> at the <a href="http://www.utk.edu/">University of Tennessee</a>, and suffice to say, the life of a new faculty can at times be... overwhelming.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-72532208643397046482012-06-26T10:00:00.000-04:002012-06-27T10:14:08.178-04:00Deconstructing anti-nuclear economic myths - a response to Veronique de RugyLet me start things off with a disclaimer - I am not an economist. I don't even <i>pretend</i> to be an economist; I'm a nuclear engineer by training (I hold Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering). That notwithstanding, economics (and specifically, the economics of energy) are a side interest of mine. So it was with mixed interest and trepidation when I read a recent piece by libertarian economist Veronique de Rugy from the upcoming July issue of <i><a href="http://www.reason.com/">Reason</a>, </i>entitled "<a href="http://reason.com/archives/2012/06/25/no-to-nukes">No to Nukes</a>."<br />
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Plausibly, de Rugy's animating complaint (given Reason's market-oriented focus) is in the subsidies for new nuclear (specifically, when I followed up with <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/veroderugy">de Rugy on Twitter</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/veroderugy/status/217290043855863808">she pointed out</a> the issue of <a href="https://twitter.com/veroderugy/status/217305159552868352">loan guarantees</a>, although nowhere does this specifically appear in her piece). The piece itself is nothing new, however - the bulk of it is in fact <a href="http://reason.com/archives/2011/03/25/the-truth-about-nuclear-power">a retread of a suspiciously-timed nuclear hit piece</a> which appeared literally two weeks after the Fukushima disaster. (One gets the distinct impression that, despite her protestations to the contrary, de Rugy is more than happy to dance on what she perceives to be nuclear's grave, particularly given her timing and choice of targets.) In reality, the piece seems to follow on to a frustrating trend of pro-fossil contrarianism as of late, <a href="http://www.masterresource.org/" rel="nofollow">particularly in libertarian circles</a> (contrarian in the sense of singling out the most economical, carbon-free competitor to fossil fuels for special scorn on economic grounds); although perhaps this contrarian turn owes to the fact that conservative heavyweight think tank <a href="http://www.heritage.org/">Heritage</a> has cornered the market in <a href="http://blog.heritage.org/?s=nuclear">advocating nuclear energy</a> as a free-market energy source. (Who said hipsterism is limited to fashion and terrible beer?)<br />
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de Rugy's piece begins with an overly long introduction detailing to the reader why nuclear power was destined to fail to live up to its promises, including citing public opinion which she describes as having " remained steadfast against the technology ever since [Three Mile Island]" (although someone may want to refer de Rugy to the latest <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/03/support-for-nuclear-broad-but-shallow.html">polling data</a> on the <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/03/not-all-energy-is-fungible-and-it.html">subject</a>), along with other issues, such as "[d]isputes over waste disposal [which] have never been resolved" (once again however, <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/search/label/waste%20management">these are <i>political</i> rather than <i>technical</i> matters</a>).<br />
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Finally we get to the meat of the matter - it would appear that a restart of the nuclear industry is, "[...]not just bad politics. It’s awful economics." Well.<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-08ULz0R06zU/T-ko8Pb3I2I/AAAAAAAAGeM/IE2xLxsCS7k/s1600/LCOE.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a></div>
To this end, de Rugy characterizes the recent decision by the NRC to grant Southern Nuclear company a license to build two new AP1000 units at the Vogtle site - the first new units in 30 years, as "[...]<span style="background-color: white;">an act of desperation by a president who has realized he is running out of other options." Fortunately, contrary to the opinions of a economists with a particular axe to grind, the decision to award Southern Company <a href="http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors.html">is <i>not</i> in fact in the hands of the president</a>, nor are operating licenses granted upon individual opinions about economic viability of the project - they are voted on by the commissioners of the NRC on the basis of safety alone. This fundamental misunderstanding of the process is pervasive throughout the rest of the piece.</span><br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-08ULz0R06zU/T-ko8Pb3I2I/AAAAAAAAGeM/IE2xLxsCS7k/s1600/LCOE.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="Levelized cost of electricity" border="0" height="287" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-08ULz0R06zU/T-ko8Pb3I2I/AAAAAAAAGeM/IE2xLxsCS7k/s400/LCOE.png" title="Nuclear - so expensive it's... cheaper than if fossil actually had to pay for its waste disposal" width="400" /></a><span style="background-color: white;">Much of the piece is particularly scarce on actual sources and utterly devoid of hyperlinks (however, given the fact that the piece is a re-tread of her prior post-Fukushima piece, <a href="http://reason.com/archives/2011/03/25/the-truth-about-nuclear-power">most of her sources appear to be taken from there</a>). de Rugy cites a 2009 MIT study by </span><span style="background-color: white;">Ernest J. Moniz and Mujid S. Kazim as evidence of nuclear's uncompetitive costs; one assumes she is referring to MIT's <a href="http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/">"Future of Nuclear Power" project</a> which includes cost projects of nuclear compared to other conventional fossil sources under a variety of circumstances. In the 2009 update, it reports the following cost comparison: assuming current cost of capital, coal clocks in at 8.4 </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">¢</span><span style="background-color: white;">/kWh, natural gas at 6.5 </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">¢</span><span style="background-color: white;">/kWh, and nuclear at 8.4 $/kWh. The authors specifically note however that this includes a current "risk premium" to capital costs for nuclear - recalculating capital costs at comparative market rates (absent the "risk premium"), they come up with a number far closer to gas and coal: 6.6 </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">¢</span><span style="background-color: white;">/kWh. Even assuming the risk premium stays, with a carbon capture and storage the cost for coal and gas quickly reaches near-parity with nuclear once more. Such an analysis is also borne out in applying levelized cost of electricity estimates to <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/">EIA data</a>, resulting in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#US_Department_of_Energy_estimates">similar conclusions</a>.</span><br />
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Taking up the example of the French (with their nuclear-heavy energy portfolio), de Rugy asserts that because of the France's (state-subsidized) industry, French consumers pay more for electricity. Specifically, she writes:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
But producing nuclear energy in France is not magically cheaper than elsewhere. French citizens are forced to pay inflated costs to support grand government schemes, such as the decision made 30 years ago to go nuclear at any cost after the first oil shock in 1974. </blockquote>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-O5_IohIb6HA/T-mZ-7u-JSI/AAAAAAAAGeg/SHLm1oVlc38/s1600/EU+prices.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="EU electricity prices" border="0" height="290" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-O5_IohIb6HA/T-mZ-7u-JSI/AAAAAAAAGeg/SHLm1oVlc38/s400/EU+prices.png" title="Inflated costs? Not borne out by retail price data, at least..." width="400" /></a></div>
Really? <a href="http://www.energy.eu/#Domestic-Elec">Going to the data</a>, the opposite is in fact true: France has one of the <i>lowest </i>retail electricity prices (the 7th lowest in the E.U.); compare this to Germany, which has recently phased out nuclear entirely, which pays the second-<i>highest</i> rate. (Again, these are not hard things to find, but something de Rugy asserts with no evidence and in clear contradiction of the data.) She might try to argue that consumers pay indirectly, but nowhere has evidence been presented to support this, nor is it supported by retail electricity price data.<br />
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de Rugy's main thrust here of course is that capital costs for nuclear in the U.S. are little different than those than in nuclear-friendly France, relying on the analysis of the <a href="http://www.vermontlaw.edu/Documents/IEE/20100909_cooperStudy.pdf">Vermont Law School's Mark Cooper</a>, an individual who isn't exactly private about his own agenda when it comes to nuclear. (Hint: <a href="http://analysis.nuclearenergyinsider.com/new-build/mark-cooper-institute-energy-and-environment-changing-face-nuclear-renaissance">he's not a fan</a>.) <span style="background-color: white;">Again, one gets the impression the data is being cherry-picked to fit the desired conclusion. de Rugy makes an incomplete comparison here, citing the high "overnight cost" estimates for nuclear capital costs compared to coal and natural gas, while neglecting to inform her readers that this alone is a highly misleading comparison. (To see how this process is </span><i style="background-color: white;">properly</i><span style="background-color: white;"> unpacked, even with natural gas still coming out favorably compared to nuclear, I invite you to see how </span><a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/24/actual-energy-costs-are-driving-us-towards-a-natural-gas-nation/" style="background-color: white;">Dr. James Conca unfolds the data</a><span style="background-color: white;">).</span><br />
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To wit: "overnight" cost is a rough estimate of total capital cost (i.e., total money which must be invested to build the plant), assuming the plant "overnight" - i.e., without the borrowing costs (in other words, interest on loans which continues to pile up while plants are being built and not generating revenue), something which particularly dominates nuclear costs. However, a more accurate comparison is the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)- something which calculates both the capital cost <i>and</i> operations & maintenance costs (which include fuel - a cost which dominates natural gas economics). The LCOE calculates the "break-even" cost of electricity from a plant given the projected costs over the plant's lifetime, with a reasonable discount rate (for example, the expected return of ~3% on treasury bonds) over the life of the facility. Given that the expected lifetimes of different facilities can vary widely by type (i.e., the current fleet of nuclear plants will almost all be relicensed to operate for a total of 60 years, with some potentially operating up to 80 with facility improvements and upgrades), this makes for a more useful comparison of the <i>actual </i>cost of electricity. Once again, something absent from de Rugy's analysis.<br />
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Indeed, taking this out to the logical extension - if nuclear plants were wholly unprofitable to build and operate, why in the world then would operators of the existing fleet of 104 reactors not simply turn each one off tomorrow, much less put a dime into maintenance outages which run up into the millions of dollars? The answer of course is because this is <i>not</i> true; nuclear plants are indeed expensive to build (due to capital costs, including the borrowing costs associated with construction times), but the <i>marginal</i> cost of power from a nuclear unit is tiny - namely because most of the cost is in the cost of capital itself. Nuclear in this sense represents the <i>opposite</i> economics of natural gas, which has a low front-end cost but whose costs are generally dominated by fuel price. (Thus, the levelized cost - something de Rugy does not look at - is extremely dependent upon assumptions of future fuel prices - hence why nuclear is often seen as a hedge against future fossil fuel price increases.)<br />
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However, de Rugy comes back with the follow-up that such estimates of nuclear cost come "after taking into account a baked-in taxpayer subsidy that artificially lowers nuclear plants’ operating costs." Looking at the <a href="http://www.misi-net.com/publications/NEI-1011.pdf">broader picture of historical energy subsidies</a> however, this point doesn't seem to carry the impact de Rugy seems to think it does - from the period of 1950-2010, nuclear has been the recipient of about 9% of total federal energy subsidies, compared to a shocking 44% for oil. (For those following at home, the rest include: Natural gas - 14%, Coal - 12%, Hydro - 11%, Renewables - 9%, Geothermal - 1%). Most of nuclear's subsidy has, <i>contra </i>de Rugy, not been focused on the regulatory side (although the study does point to an approximate regulatory subsidy of $16 billion over the total time period) but R&D, which should surprise few who are conversant with the history of nuclear. (Oil, by contrast, receives the whopping share of its calculated subsidies from tax policy and regulation, while natural gas has almost exclusively benefited from tax policy).<br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sxrpSZ2XvMQ/T-kqNpK9meI/AAAAAAAAGeU/ztQymTfu8F0/s1600/US_M18a1_claymore_mine.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Claymore mine" border="0" height="275" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sxrpSZ2XvMQ/T-kqNpK9meI/AAAAAAAAGeU/ztQymTfu8F0/s320/US_M18a1_claymore_mine.jpg" title="The typical orientation of energy subsidy discussions" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Image: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claymore_mine">Wikipedia</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="background-color: white;">Notably absent from de Rugy's analysis is how the most important subsidy fossil fuels (especially coal) have come to rely upon, which is treating the atmosphere like an open cesspool. Indeed, looking to the above costs from the MIT study, were we truly dealing with a "level playing field" in the sense that carbon-intensive industries were required to give their waste products the same degree of scrutiny that nuclear already does, the much-ballyhooed "cost difference" largely vanishes. (Again however, discussions of energy subsidies invariably seem to only go one way: like a claymore.)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">No doubt though de Rugy is invoking the issue of nuclear liability insurance of course (known under the moniker of the "Price-Anderson Act", passed in 1957). What is <i>not</i> noted is the exact taxpayer liability to date under Price-Anderson - which is exactly $0. Again, contrary to the claims of nuclear opponents like de Rugy who dress up their objections in economist's language, nuclear is not "uninsurable" on the private market - in fact, each nuclear unit is <a href="http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/funds-fs.html">required to carry an individual liability of $375 million</a>; following the exhaustion of the individual commercial policy, each operator-licensee is required to kick in up to another $111.9 million (pro-rated), producing what amounts to a collective cross-insurance arrangement of $11.975 billion. One can dispute whether such a sum is "sufficient," but the idea that the industry is utterly absolved of tort liability is clearly at odds with the the current reality.</span><br />
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When I pressed de Rugy over what particular subsidies she was complaining about and why her complaint so specifically singled out nuclear (looking at her publication history, there is <a href="http://reason.com/people/veronique-de-rugy/all">nary an article</a> devoted to the issue of energy subsidies for other sectors), she responded by pointing me to<a href="http://mercatus.org/publication/assessing-department-energy-loan-guarantee-program"> an analysis she did</a> on the market-distorting effects of loan guarantees. (This <i>after</i> I pointed out that I was in favor of removing <i>all</i> subsidies - but it would seem, like many in the punditry business, <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2010/04/follow-up-on-conversation-with-catos-jerry-taylor-reactions-from-a-heritage-foundation-fellow.html">the conclusion comes first</a>).<br />
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Frankly, I won't get into all of the analysis - because once again, I am not out to defend loan guarantees or any other form of energy subsidy. However, one thing that did jump out at me once more was the use of extremely cherry-picked data in her report - the few items that do mention nuclear (most of the piece pertained to loan guarantees for solar - which incidentally, was <i>not</i> required to pay the credit subsidy fee which nuclear was) are, shall we say, "factually challenged." de Rugy rolls out the <a href="http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/documentlibrary/newplants/policybrief/financingnewplants/">several-times-over debunked trope</a> of the 50 percent default rate with nuclear loan guarantees - based on poorly-documented projections over a program which was never passed. While de Rugy immediately pointing out that the CBO revised this number (without specifying how much), the supporting evidence she gives to this revision <i>doesn't even pertain to civilian nuclear power</i> - rather, the study she points to is a comparative <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/publication/41454">economic analysis of nuclear power</a> for <i><b>naval propulsion</b></i>.<br />
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The only other nuclear-specific studies de Rugy cites in this study come from Peter Bradford - a well-known anti-nuclear activist with the <a href="http://www.npolicy.org/" rel="nofollow">Nonproliferation Policy Education Center</a> (simply <a href="https://www.google.com/webhp?q=bradford+nuclear">google "Bradford" and "nuclear"</a> if you don't believe me) - along with Henry Sokolski (also affiliated with the same). The extremely selective use of sources known to have a hostile agenda to nuclear (that is, when the sources even <i>accurately </i>refer to de Rugy's claims) again strongly implies a rushed, cherry-picking approach that implies a "conclusion-first, evidence later" approach that is all too familiar with established punditry. Indeed, it might make for impressive-looking studies (and good sound bites), but it hardly suffices for serious scholarly work. Indeed, if the evidence is as strong as she claims it to be, it would behoove her case greatly to find such evidence from more objective and less clearly agenda-driven sources.<br />
<br />
Of course, all of this is the problem: even rather sloppy studies like this, particularly when attached to someone with a Ph.D. in economics, sound plausible and require the time and energy to deconstructing their myriad of errors and misplaced assumptions - something which amounts to a non-trivial task for one when most of their day is typically occupied by honest employment, alas.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-11616872683300958792012-06-12T20:21:00.002-04:002012-06-13T10:26:18.890-04:00Questions for MacFarlane<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-y6c-azwgrU0/T9fcroWUMhI/AAAAAAAAGXs/nfy-vO8JMkk/s1600/macfarlane.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Allison MacFarlane" border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-y6c-azwgrU0/T9fcroWUMhI/AAAAAAAAGXs/nfy-vO8JMkk/s320/macfarlane.jpg" title="There are precisely two images of Dr. MacFarlane circulating the internet. I tried to find the more flattering one this time." width="304" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Dr. MacFarlane (<b>Image:</b> <a href="http://spirit.gmu.edu/archives/fall09/feature-stories/lets-give-them-someting-to-talk-about.html">George Mason University</a>)</td></tr>
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The nomination of Allison MacFarlane has drawn a considerably mixed reaction among the nuclear community, ranging from <a href="http://www.nei.org/newsandevents/newsreleases/nei-comments-on-impending-nomination-of-allison-macfarlane-as-nrc-chairman/">NEI's rather speedy endorsement</a> and Rod Adams' <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/05/macfarlane-is-not-qualified-to-be-chairman-of-the-nuclear-regulatory-commission.html">similarly rapid denouncement</a>. Others (including myself) have chosen to withhold judgment for the time being, although I do recomend Margaret Harding's <a href="http://www.4factorconsulting.com/energy-industry/criteria_for_serving_on_nrc">list of desirable qualities</a> in a potential NRC chair.<br />
<br />
Given that MacFarlane's hearing before the Senate Environment and Public Works committee <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/06/07/macfarlane-svinicki-nomination-hearing/">is scheduled for tomorrow</a>, here are some questions which I believe would better inform the discussion both of whether MacFarlane is a good candidate to lead the NRC and what her leadership might entail.<br />
<div>
<h4>
NRC & Leadership</h4>
<div>
<ol>
<li>Given the size and relative impact of the NRC, it is not an agency known for its amenability to on-the-job leadership training. A particular concern is in your lack of organizational leadership experience on your resume. Why do you believe you are qualified to lead the NRC, and what leadership qualities do you believe you bring to the table?</li>
<li>Describe what you feel are the key challenges currently facing the NRC. What areas would you focus on as chair, and how would you work to overcome them?</li>
<li>Your attitudes appear to have evolved from being a <a href="http://atomic.thepodcastnetwork.com/2007/06/15/the-atomic-show-061-allison-macfarlane-atomic-agnostic/">self-described "nuclear agnostic"</a> to indicating that <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/qa/414029/life-after-yucca-mountain/">"we absolutely need" nuclear energy</a> with respect to climate change. What provoked this evolution?</li>
<li>A prominent concern regarding your appointment to the chairmanship of the NRC is that your background has generally not focused on nuclear fuel cycle technology per se. How do you believe you can overcome this experience gap?</li>
<li>Much of the NRC's policy comes down to producing an appropriate balance of safety with economic considerations in regulation. Please describe your thinking on what constitutes socially acceptable risks. Should the safety threshold for nuclear energy systems be higher than other commonly accepted risks, such as air travel? What about in comparison to other energy sources?<br />
</li>
<li>A decision which has been roundly criticized by many nuclear experts was outgoing Chairman Jazcko's unilateral decision to establish a 50-mile evacuation zone for U.S. residents in Japan, contrary to both existing U.S. evacuation guidelines and the Japanese evacuation guidelines. Do you agree with this decision? If so, upon what basis? If not, where did the Chairman err and how would you handle the situation differently?</li>
</ol>
</div>
<h4>
Nuclear Waste Management</h4>
<ol>
<li>As an <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/22850/">outspoken critic of Yucca Mountain</a>, both on technical and procedural grounds, how do you view the decision by your predecessor Gregory Jazcko, along with President Obama and Secretary Chu to terminate the licensing review process in light of amendments to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Waste_Policy_Act">1982 Nuclear Waste Policy Act</a> which legally mandate Yucca Mountain as the nation's sole geologic repository? Would you allow the licensing process to move forward? If not, how then do you square this under existing federal law?</li>
<li>One of your significant contributions to the <a href="http://www.brc.gov/">Blue Ribbon Commission</a> was a strong focus upon a <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/09/dissecting-brc-report-part-i-where-they.html">more consent-based process</a> of involving communities in the repository licesing process. What do you view as the NRC's role the siting process for a potential repository (if any)?</li>
<li>What immediate actions (if any) do you believe the federal government should take with respect to spent fuel management?</li>
</ol>
<h4>
Nonproliferation</h4>
<ol>
<li>Your academic background includes several publications on the topic of nuclear nonproliferation policy. In particular, you have publicly stated <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v485/n7397/full/485167a.html">your opposition to spent fuel reprocessing</a> on nonproliferation grounds. Do you believe President Carter's decision to suspend civil reprocessing in the United States was ultimately effective in achieving its stated nonproliferation goals?</li>
<li>How do these nonproliferation concerns relate to the NRC's <a href="http://www.nrc.gov/materials/fuel-cycle-fac/laser.html">recent license to GE to construct a laser enrichment test facility</a>, given similar nonproliferation concerns?</li>
<li>Please describe <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v485/n7397/full/485167a.html">why you believe</a> reprocessing of <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/06/06/peters-testifies-to-congress/">reactor-grade plutonium</a> to be a viable proliferation concern, particularly in nuclear weapons states.</li>
<li>What role (if any) do you see for the NRC in establishing U.S. nonproliferation policy?</li>
</ol>
<h4>
Licensing and new construction</h4>
<ol>
<li>A particular challenge to the development of novel reactor concepts such as small modular reactors as well as entirely new reactor concepts such as <a href="http://www.terrapower.com/home.aspx">TerraPower's traveling wave reactor</a> has been the difficulty in getting such designs through the NRC licesning process. In particular, this has been described as a "chicken-and-egg" problem, with the NRC refusing to prioritize designs with no present commercial interest, while utilities are generally only interested in designs that are expected to receive NRC review. As a result, some designers - such as TerraPower - plan on circumventing the U.S. market entirely. What do you believe the NRC should do to address this issue?</li>
<li>Nuclear experts such as Rod Adams have pointed out that the existing COL process <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/06/06/starting-a-new-nuclear-construction-industry-is-hard-work/">relies on the assumption</a> that no amendments to the design will need to be made after construction begins. Does this process need to be improved? If so, how would you propose improving it?</li>
<li>Departing chairman Jazcko was frequently the lone dissenter on several recent votes for involving reactor licensing and construction, including the construction licenses for <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72680.html">Vogtle </a>and <a href="http://www.power-eng.com/articles/2012/03/nrc-approve-col-for-vc-summer.html">VC Sumner</a> reactors as well as the<a href="http://plymouth.patch.com/articles/pilgrim-watch-loses-one-more-round-entergy-wins-approval-from-nrc"> recent 20-year license extension</a> for the Pilgrim nuclear facility. Do you believe Jazcko's dissenting votes were justified? If so, on what grounds? If not, how would you approach the situation differently?</li>
</ol>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
What questions would you ask MacFarlane, given the chance?<br />
<br />
<b>Update:</b> Margaret Harding <a href="http://www.4factorconsulting.com/energy-industry/questions-for-dr-macfarlane">presents her own list of questions</a>, and Rod Adams <a href="http://atomicinsights.com/2012/06/transcript-of-atomic-show-61-allison-macfarlane-atomic-agnostic-june-15-2007.html">posts a transcript</a> of his <a href="http://atomic.thepodcastnetwork.com/2007/06/15/the-atomic-show-061-allison-macfarlane-atomic-agnostic/">2007 interview with Dr. MacFarlane</a> in which she declares herself as an "atomic agnostic."<br />
<br />
<b>Update II: </b>Jack Spencer at Heritage's blog <a href="http://blog.heritage.org/2012/06/12/five-questions-the-senate-should-ask-nrc-nominee-allison-macfarlane/">similarly poses his questions</a>. Some substantial overlap in themes arises - particularly over issues such as Yucca Mountain and new reactor licensing.</div>
<ol>
</ol>
</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-68271216590426226042012-05-28T16:24:00.000-04:002012-05-28T16:42:30.123-04:00Checking out the competition<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
In a bit of a change of pace from the normal fare, I thought I'd post some pictures from a visit today to <a href="http://www.tva.gov/sites/norris.htm">TVA's Norris Dam</a>. At 130 MW peak generating capacity, it is perhaps the one source out there that can truly compete with nuclear in terms of marginal unit cost as well as dispatchability: hydro.</div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ihmrxbz-zMw/T8PDXhHX2kI/AAAAAAAAGOs/t0-o5lfSycQ/s1600/2012-05-28_12-06-34_997.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="Norris Dam panorama" border="0" height="91" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ihmrxbz-zMw/T8PDXhHX2kI/AAAAAAAAGOs/t0-o5lfSycQ/s640/2012-05-28_12-06-34_997.jpg" title="A panoramic view of Norris Dam and the clinch river" width="640" /></a></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ECkVuvYBS54/T8PDXmgEYLI/AAAAAAAAGOs/lfzCSJPHH7c/s1600/2012-05-28_12-03-54_344.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Norris reservoir" border="0" height="360" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ECkVuvYBS54/T8PDXmgEYLI/AAAAAAAAGOs/lfzCSJPHH7c/s640/2012-05-28_12-03-54_344.jpg" title="Norris reservoir and dam" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Norris Dam from the western overlook</td></tr>
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Norris Dam serves a dual purpose, being designed both to provide large amounts of reliable electricity as well as providing flood control along the Clinch River (which winds through east Tennessee, eventually joining with the Tennessee river).<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-soDZm0ai7CA/T8PDXgAzVSI/AAAAAAAAGOs/zrwlOlDEmkM/s1600/2012-05-28_12-07-45_692.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Norris Dam western overlook" border="0" height="360" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-soDZm0ai7CA/T8PDXgAzVSI/AAAAAAAAGOs/zrwlOlDEmkM/s640/2012-05-28_12-07-45_692.jpg" title="A spectacular work of engineering" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Norris Dam and power station</td></tr>
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Hydro represents one of the most interesting sources of electric power, in terms of its flexibility - its economics are similar to nuclear in certain respects (in that it is capital-intensive yet very low marginal unit cost, meaning it is the first energy source to be dispatched for demand), yet by its nature it is easily suited to baseload generation (low marginal cost), as well as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Load_following_power_plant">load following</a> and peak generation (i.e., given the ease at which floodgates can be opened or closed). Nuclear is also capable of load-following, which is commonly done in France, although much less so in the United States (due to economics) save for where nuclear exists is high concentrations; typically load-following is accomplished through fast-response natural gas turbines.<br />
<br />
In other respects, hydro shares some similarities with other renewables - the energy output of a hydroelectric plant is fundamentally tied to nature - namely by the reservoir level (which in turn is influenced by rainfall levels). Unlike wind and solar however, hydro represents relatively "smooth" and predictable power output - while meteorology is far from a perfect science, rainfall patterns are generally quite predictable, meaning output levels from hydroelectric dams can also be readily planned for in advance.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-svePQFVF9to/T8PDXjkO6qI/AAAAAAAAGOs/tDlHAgZBGNI/s1600/2012-05-28_12-39-16_926.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Looking down from Norris Dam" border="0" height="360" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-svePQFVF9to/T8PDXjkO6qI/AAAAAAAAGOs/tDlHAgZBGNI/s640/2012-05-28_12-39-16_926.jpg" title="Not as impressive with the flow at a minimum, but the engineering is nonetheless spectacular" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The view from the top of Norris Dam</td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bgwsa3uxWiE/T8PDXil8lmI/AAAAAAAAGOs/mZWdU822R0E/s1600/2012-05-28_12-39-03_934.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Clinch river valley" border="0" height="360" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bgwsa3uxWiE/T8PDXil8lmI/AAAAAAAAGOs/mZWdU822R0E/s640/2012-05-28_12-39-03_934.jpg" title="The scenic view on the other side of the impoundment" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Clinch River valley, past the impoundment</td></tr>
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<a href="https://plus.google.com/u/0/photos/116796073143376102577/albums/5747670794254847233">More photos here</a>.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, at least as far as the U.S. goes, most of the "prime" hydroelectric capacity has already been tapped - meaning we've got about as much as we're going to get from this source.<br />
<br />
Happy Memorial Day to our U.S. readers - we'll be back to our regular scheduled programming later this week.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-61097402680036939142012-05-24T19:26:00.000-04:002012-05-25T14:14:48.550-04:00A closer look at Jazcko's replacement<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_UZYpL3LBJ0/T76x7526qrI/AAAAAAAAGJ4/6R_8zo23GUM/s1600/f_macfarlane.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_UZYpL3LBJ0/T76x7526qrI/AAAAAAAAGJ4/6R_8zo23GUM/s200/f_macfarlane.jpg" width="148" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://esp.gmu.edu/people/facultybios/macfarlane.html">Dr. MacFarlane</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Earlier this week, embattled NRC Chairman Gregory Jaczko<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/22/us/gregory-jaczko-to-resign-as-nrc-chairman-after-stormy-tenure.html?_r=2"><span id="goog_1713672151"></span> announced</a> he would be<a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/05/21/jackzo-resignation/"> stepping down</a> from his position contingent upon the confirmation of his replacement. Wasting no time, the Obama administration <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/05/24/president-obama-announces-more-key-administration-posts">announced their nominee today</a>, a mere three days after Jaczko's announcement. Their candidate? <a href="http://esp.gmu.edu/people/facultybios/macfarlane.html">Dr. Allison MacFarlane</a>, an associate professor of Environmental Science and Policy at George Mason University.
<br />
<br />
MacFarlane is not without technical credentials - she holds a Ph.D. in geology from MIT and has written extensively on nuclear waste management issues - in particular, serving on the recent <a href="http://www.brc.gov/">Blue Ribbon Commission</a>. And, unlike the departing Chairman, MacFarlane at least has an academic career to point to, rather than solely being employed as a political aide for entire career. Ideologically however, she is relatively aligned with the departing Chariman however - thus, while not quite <i>Gregory Jaczko II: Electric Boogaloo</i>, she is likely close enough for government work.<br />
<h2>
A mixed bag</h2>
Suffice it to say, MacFarlane's ideological interests represent a mixed bag, to say the least. In many of her writings concerning the siting process for a nuclear waste repository, MacFarlane has repeatedly pointed to the need for a consent-based process (like that used for the <a href="http://www.wipp.energy.gov/">Waste Isolation Pilot Plant [WIPP]</a> in New Mexico) for locating a disposal facility, something which has been repeatedly stressed by other nuclear professionals (including myself). Thus, her influence over the <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/09/dissecting-brc-report-part-i-where-they.html">Blue Ribbon Commission's final report</a> is quite obvious.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, MacFarlane has been <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v485/n7397/full/485167a.html">extremely critical</a> of spent fuel reprocessing along with being a <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/22850/">tenacious opponent of Yucca Mountain itself</a>; she, along with Frank Von Hippel of Princeton have repeatedly <a href="http://bos.sagepub.com/content/57/3/53.long">advocated plutonium immobilization</a> of surplus stocks of reactor-grade plutonium from civil reprocessing programs, as well as for weapons-grade plutonium from dismantled nuclear warheads. Needless to say, this is an incredibly wasteful and inefficient waste management solution. (It is thus perhaps unsurprising then, given her influence, that the BRC final report also <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/09/dissecting-brc-report-part-ii-where.html">declined to endorse reprocessing</a> as a policy solution for spent nuclear fuel.)<br />
<br />
MacFarlane couches her objections chiefly in terms of nonproliferation concerns (something which I have an academic specialty in); what is not clearly demonstrated in any of her analysis is how reactor-grade plutonium (itself not suitable for direct use in weapons, due to heat-producing impurities such as Pu-240 and Pu-242 which make for sub-optimal weapons materials - more on this in a moment) represents a viable proliferation concern, particularly in nuclear weapons states such as the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and the United States.<br />
<br />
The exception here to this trend is of course Japan, which currently reprocesses fuel and ultimately aspires to achieve a fully "closed" fuel cycle for reasons of resource independence. However, even absent a reprocessing program, their world-class leadership in nuclear technology means that they are hardly constrained on a technical basis from developing a weapons program. (Japan is quintessentially a "screwdriver's turn" from nuclear weapons capability.) Yet given their deep cultural aversion to nuclear weapons, Japan is in fact a leading figure in the international nonproliferation community.<br />
<br />
All of this said, MacFarlane herself has gone on the record of indicating the she personally does not oppose nuclear energy itself, arguing that in the face of climate change, <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/22850/">we "absolutely need nuclear power."</a> Again, very much a mixed bag, so to speak.<br />
<h3>
The two faces of the nonproliferation community</h3>
Much of MacFarlane's background has been associated with what I term the "political" wing of the nonproliferation community - the other being the "technical" side (where my background is from). Her affiliations include the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard (not exactly a hotbed of pro-nuclear activity or solid technical analysis at that), home of well-known <a href="http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/experts/368/matthew_bunn.html">academic nuclear critic Matthew Bunn</a>, as well as being a regular co-author with <a href="http://www.princeton.edu/sgs/faculty-staff/frank-von-hippel/">Frank Von Hippel</a> (someone also not known for his warm feelings for nuclear energy - although a perfectly pleasant person in real life.)<br />
<br />
Nonproliferation tends to get a poor reputation among nuclear professionals and advocates, precisely due to the "political" wing, who tend to focus on opposing any nuclear technology seen as "proliferant," which in turn lends itself to the anti-nuclear strategy of "bottle-necking" - in other words, "constipate" the nuclear fuel cycle and then complain loudly of the "lack of solutions" for nuclear waste (despite the plethora of available technical options).<br />
<br />
Conversely, the "technical" nonproliferation community tends to focus on aspects such as how to improve aspects of verification and measurement within fuel cycle facilities - in other words, ensuring that declarations of sensitive facilities are complete and accurate and that material is fully accounted for. An example of this includes projects like those I am currently working on, which seek to use radiation detectors to better characterize the isotopic contents of spent nuclear fuel in order to provide for a superior accounting of materials such as plutonium. The difference in focus thus could not be more stark - one side complaining of the potential problems and the other seeking solutions to improve facilities such to eliminate said problems.<br />
<br />
Ultimately, these kinds of debates come back to the question I frequently ask: <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/02/whats-your-alternative.html">"So what's your alternative?"</a> To her credit, MacFarlane at least does offer an alternative solution - one I find to be highly flawed, but it is nonetheless out there. And again, likewise to her credit, MacFarlane does not declare herself to be outright opposed to nuclear energy. Thus, the problem is simply a matter of coming to an agreement on a better solution for nuclear waste management.<br />
<h3>
A small background on "weapons-usable"</h3>
So-called "weapons-grade" plutonium contains more than 90% Pu-239 - the isotope most suitable for weapons use (given its low spontaneous fission rate and low heat generation rate). Even-numbered plutonium isotopes - Pu-238, Pu-240, and Pu-242 - tend to have a high heat generation rate (Pu-238 has such a high heat generation rate from alpha decay that it is frequently used as a <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/02/01/11193/">power source for space missions</a> such as the <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/cassini/multimedia/index.html">Cassini-Hugyens probe</a> which took <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/cassini/multimedia/gallery-index.html">spectacular images of Saturn</a> and the <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/newhorizons/main/index.html">New Horizons probe</a> currently en route to Pluto). Pu-240 and Pu-242 also have a high level of spontaneous fission, which means in addition to producing large amounts of heat they produce high levels of neutrons - in a weapon, this leads to unpredictable yield, or "fizzle." Thus, generally speaking, "reactor grade" plutonium, while <i>usable</i> in the strictest sense (i.e., one can construct a fission chain reaction using the materials), they are far from optimal for a national weapons effort - any nation with the capability of reprocessing would easily choose a more dedicated route (i.e., with separate plutonium-production reactors to produce high-purity Pu-239 and separate reprocessing facilities) before resorting to diverting civilian stocks.<br />
<h2>
Political calculations - the "twofer"</h2>
So why did Obama tap MacFarlane? Two reasons are likely in play. The first of course is that given her prior criticisms of Yucca Mountain, her nomination <a href="http://nationaljournal.com/energy/obama-s-choice-to-lead-nuclear-agency-delights-senate-democratic-leader-20120524">has been bolstered by the support</a> of Senate Majority Leader and infamous Yucca Mountain opponent Senator Harry Reid (D-NV). Second, her nomination comes on the heels of President Obama's renomination of current <a href="http://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/organization/commission/svinicki.html">Commissioner Kristine Svinicki</a>. Thus it is likely the Obama Administration is seeking a "twofer," seeking to align the confirmation of Svinicki with that of MacFarlane as a "package deal." Senate Republicans are unlikely to object to Svinicki, who has enjoyed <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/05/14/svinicki-nomination/">the support</a> of the <a href="http://www.nei.org/newsandevents/newsreleases/nei-congratulates-svinicki-on-impending-nomination-for-second-term-to-nrc/">nuclear community</a> given her extensive expertise in nuclear issues. (And indeed, <a href="http://www.nei.org/newsandevents/newsreleases/nei-comments-on-impending-nomination-of-allison-macfarlane-as-nrc-chairman/">even NEI has been pushing this strategy</a> of jointly confirming the two nominees.)<br />
<br />
The nomination of MacFarlane as chair may also be a concession to Reid and other anti-nuclear Senate Democrats in another sense - Senator Reid has complained (without substantial basis) of Svinicki's record on the NRC - a rather questionable position, given Svinicki has generally voted with her three other commissioners on many important issues (in other words, it would seem that Reid's criticism, and in particular singling out Svinicki, is mostly upon the grounds of several prominent 4-1 votes in which Chairman Jaczko stood alone).<br />
<br />
However, his grumbling <a href="http://www.reid.senate.gov/newsroom/pr_052412_nrcnchairomination.cfm">appears to be muted</a> in a press release similar to that of NEI, stating:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I continue to have grave concerns about Kristine Svinicki’s record on the Commission. But I believe the best interests of the public would be served by moving the nominations of Dr. Macfarlane and Ms. Svinicki together before Ms. Svinicki’s term expires at the end of June, to ensure that we have a fully functioning NRC. Republicans claim to share that goal, and I hope they will work with us to make it a reality.</blockquote>
The smart money will thus likely be on a joint appointment deal hammered out sometime this summer.<br />
<br />
And as for Yucca Mountain? <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2011/10/gop-debate-dont-bet-on-yucca-mountain.html">I still wouldn't bet on it.</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1236895917331192509.post-58910439199882991022012-05-17T09:30:00.000-04:002012-05-17T11:26:21.303-04:00TECPO's triage at Unit 4My <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/05/overheated-rods-rhetoric.html">prior post debunking</a> some of the more outrageous myths circulating the internet as to the state of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4 spent fuel pools generated some considerable amount of heat, particularly over at its syndicated location at <a href="http://theenergycollective.com/skutnik/84259/overheated-rods-rhetoric">The Energy Collective</a>. Much of this discussion has focused upon the physical state of the Unit 4 reactor building itself (at the top of which the Unit 4 spent fuel pool resides). Yet contrary to popular belief in particular circles, TEPCO has certainly not left the spent fuel pool at Unit 4 to the vagaries of nature, nor have they failed to produce a credible, long-term plan for stabilizing and containing the remaining spent fuel at the reactor units.<br />
<br />
Before getting too far into the topic, it's useful to point to a <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/05/16/spent-fuel-at-fukushima-not-dangerous/">comprehensive companion piece</a> to the prior discussion by Will Davis (of <a href="http://atomicpowerreview.blogspot.com/">Atomic Power Review</a>) over at the <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/">ANS Nuclear Cafe</a>, entitled <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/05/16/spent-fuel-at-fukushima-not-dangerous/">"Spent Fuel at Fukushima Daiichi Safer than Asserted."</a> (Along with several other nuclear bloggers, I offered a moderate amount of technical consultation for this topic.)<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TQOJ0RLqJG8/T7ROCoBJgQI/AAAAAAAAGHg/iyZaYdBYInU/s1600/review3_01.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="190" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TQOJ0RLqJG8/T7ROCoBJgQI/AAAAAAAAGHg/iyZaYdBYInU/s400/review3_01.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">TEPCO's remediation strategy for the Fukushima Daiichi site (<a href="http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/fukushima-np/review/review3_1-e.html">original</a>)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Given the concern over the structural state of the reactor building, it is thus useful to look at what TEPCO is actually doing to address the issue. Much of TEPCO's strategy is oriented around immediately stabilizing the site with a focus upon long-term remediation; in a word, triage.<br />
<br />
In order to stabilize the earthquake-damaged reactor building, TEPCO has already conducted an evaluation of the structural integrity of the Unit 4 reactor building, deciding to reinforce the foundation of the building with a steel-beamed outer support structure, <a href="http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu11_e/images/111216e12.pdf">work which was completed last summer</a>. In this sense then, the immediate concern over the stability of the reactor building (and spent fuel pool) has already been addressed.<br />
<br />
However, there remains the issue of the fuel itself in the Unit 4 spent fuel pool. TEPCO has already put measures into place to ensure adequate cooling in the event of a sudden loss of water (i.e., from another large earthquake), including the deployment of concrete pumper trucks (referred to as "giraffes," which were used to originally restore the water levels at the Unit 4 pools). To emphasize - the concern here is not from a loss of water due to evaporation (again, spent fuel pools are kept at atmospheric temperature and pressure under normal conditions; meanwhile, the youngest fuel within the pool is now well over a year old, meaning it is cool enough where sudden evaporation is not a concern). Rather, the planning is again one of being able to respond to issues such as future earthquakes.<br />
<br />
Despite the fact that the situation is as stable as can be expected presently at Unit 4, there is a legitimate concern about the impact of future earthquakes. Again, to emphasize - the chief concern over a (rather unlikely) collapse of the spent fuel pool is not the global catastrophe flogged by certain activists lacking in technical credentials (both my <a href="http://neutroneconomy.blogspot.com/2012/05/overheated-rods-rhetoric.html">prior post</a> and <a href="http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2012/05/16/spent-fuel-at-fukushima-not-dangerous/">Will Davis' post</a> adequately address why this is so), but rather a mechanical failure of the fuel (which would release local contamination - in particular, radioactive cesium and strontium) and force a local evacuation from the site, thus greatly complicating the cleanup response. (Thus, while far from catastrophic, such a collapse would greatly hinder the ability of TEPCO to clean up the site and add considerable expense to an already vastly expensive project.)<br />
<br />
Thus, the medium-term strategy is to relocate the fuel out of the Unit 4 spent fuel pool into the common pool, thus obviating the risk from further damage to the Unit 4 reactor building; current plans call for the fuel from Unit 4 to be fully removed by mid-2013 (and from Unit 3 by the end of 2014). Again, in contrast to the opinions of certain press-seeking political office-holders and activists, this is not a process accomplished with the wave of a wand.<br />
<br />
According to <a href="http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu11_e/images/111221e14.pdf">TEPCO's mid-to-long term roadmap</a>, this will roughly consist of the following:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Clear debris from the spent fuel pool which was dropped into the pool due to the hydrogen explosion</li>
<li>Install a cover over the damaged building to shield heavy equipment from the environment (e.g., wind and rain). Following this, heavy fuel handling equipment (e.g., heavy cranes) will be installed in the reactor buildings in order to begin the process of moving undamaged fuel rods.</li>
<li>Relocate undamaged, older fuel from the common fuel pool into dry cask storage to make room for newer, hotter fuel from the spent fuel pools at each reactor building. </li>
<li>Begin removing spent fuel from the reactor buildings; this will involve placing the fuel from the reactor buildings in temporary transportation canisters and lowering the canisters to ground level, where they can then be relocated to the common fuel pool.</li>
</ul>
<div>
Ultimately, this is not a quick process; nor is it clear how, despite the best intentions of "concerned outsiders" how this could reasonably be expedited beyond the current schedule, as several tasks are contingent upon one another. (i.e., spent fuel pools must be cleared of debris and a temporary cover must be installed before heavy equipment can be installed, and subsequently fuel can be relocated). Yet it is also clear from both current triage efforts as well as long-term recovery plans that the situation is far the looming disaster it is being sold as.<br />
<br />
<b>Update:</b> Via TEPCO's English-language <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TEPCO_English">Twitter feed</a> comes <a href="http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/fukushima-np/images/handouts_120516_05-e.pdf">this presentation</a> specifically addressing their analysis of the structural soundness of the Unit 4 reactor building.</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12086026121605548134noreply@blogger.com0